Fantasy Football Team Previews: Cardinals and Rams
Can the Cardinals keep humming without DeAndre Hopkins for six weeks? Should you gamble on Cam Akers?
With fantasy football draft season right around the corner, we are previewing every team and fantasy-relevant player. The players are broken up into three categories: love, hate, and lukewarm. Today’s teams: Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams.
Here’s who we’ve previewed so far:
Average draft position (ADP) is evolving daily. The ADP listed for each player is as of the day of publication for each newsletter. All ADP is courtesy of FantasyPros.
Note: All win total lines are courtesy of FanDuel.
Arizona Cardinals, O/U 8.5 wins
Key returners
Kyler Murray, ADP 56 (QB6)
James Conner, ADP 32 (RB17)
DeAndre Hopkins, ADP 86 (WR35)
Zach Ertz, ADP 97 (TE10)
Rondale Moore, ADP 161 (WR61)
A.J. Green, ADP 292 (WR94)
Newcomers
Marquise Brown, ADP 59 (WR22)
Darrel Williams, ADP 166 (RB57)
Trey McBride, ADP 274 (TE29)
Departures
Christian Kirk
Chase Edmonds
Love
Since I’m lukewarm on pretty much every mid-round tight end, it makes all the sense in the world to be a fan of Zach Ertz. He was the TE7 in the last eight weeks of 2021 and TE6 in points per game over that stretch. Ertz will likely be ranked as a top six tight end until DeAndre Hopkins returns from his six-game suspension. Ertz may very well go back to a fringe top 12 guy after that, but the setup for a hot start is too good to pass up late in drafts.
Darrel Williams is a great late-round target. We just saw him produce in the rushing and receiving game when given the opportunity in Kansas City last year. He profiles as a three-down back that can give you receiving upside and short-yardage work.
Lukewarm
This one is a little confusing. Even though I have James Conner (my RB15) two spots above his ADP, I still find myself feeling queasy when faced with the prospect of drafting him. Conner finished last season as the RB5, but people are wisely pricing in the certain touchdown regression him, as he finished last year with 18 touchdowns and nearly 1,100 all-purpose yards.
Conner also played a career-high 15 games last year. Conner is a violent runner who embraces contact and has rarely made it through a season without multiple ailments. As much as I like the projected workload with the departure of Chase Edmonds, I’m nervous about counting on Conner to stay healthy again and be a high-level contributor for my fantasy team. I prefer him over most of the running backs in rounds three and four, but I find myself gravitating more toward wide receiver in that range.
I have Kyler Murray as my QB7 and am totally fine if you want to select him to be your starting quarterback. Murray is going to be a good fantasy quarterback once again this year just like the last few years.
But I worry about the potential impact DeAndre Hopkins missing six games could have on Murray’s fantasy value. The Cardinals have a nice group of weapons on offense, but I like the options a lot less without Hopkins there to be the alpha.
Murray can make up for those concerns by improving his rushing output from last season. He rushed for a career-low 423 yards and averaged a career-worst 30 yards per game. If he can be somewhere between that and the 819 yards and 11 touchdowns he put up in 2020, Murray can stabilize his fantasy value to start the season and end up as a top-four quarterback. The Cardinals’ number one goal on offense should be to keep Murray healthy, so I’m skeptical the elite rushing is ever coming back.
DeAndre Hopkins is an incredibly tough player to figure out. If you knew you were getting a surefire wide receiver one upon his return from suspension, drafting and stashing him on your roster for six weeks would be a no-brainer.
Hopkins slipped a little bit last year, as he was WR16 in points per game and finished outside the top 30 due to missing the last seven games of the season. Matt Harmon notes in Reception Perception that Hopkins still cleared many of the success rate vs. coverage thresholds that he looks for in an outside receiver, Hopkins declined from his elite-level run in 2019 and 2020.
I want to make clear that it’s not time to sound the alarm bells. Hopkins went from elite to very good in 2021. But taking a 30-year-old receiver on a slight decline and serving a six-game suspension is a big risk, even if the upside exists to justify it.
Outside of the embarrassment the Cardinals caused themselves with the Kyler Murray contract fiasco, I think the most common headline out of Arizona this offseason has been various ways that Kliff Kingsbury has vowed to use Rondale Moore more often this year.
This headline literally came out as I was typing that sentence!
Moore was such a gadget player in 2021 that he essentially wasn’t even playing wide receiver. He comes so cheap (WR61) that you can cut him after a few weeks if this year doesn’t look any different for the second-year pro.
Hate
Look, I know. Marquise Brown has a great opportunity to be the top receiver on a high-volume passing offense for six weeks. It’s a similar argument as the one I made to take Ertz, except the price is much steeper with Brown, who is going as the WR22. His ADP has dropped a few spots even just in the time I’ve worked on this article, but he’s still going ahead of guys like Chris Godwin, Allen Robinson and Brandin Cooks.
Reception Perception gives Brown high marks as a separator against zone coverage, and he’s going to produce good numbers (especially without Hopkins) even if he’s also good for a terrible drop every week or two.
But I worry that it’s not going to be as good as everybody hopes without Hopkins in the picture. Brown is a poor performer against man and press man coverage, two traits you need to be good at to be a legitimate number one receiver.
I think Brown is going to be a useful fantasy option this year and likely slots into the vertical slot role vacated by Christian Kirk. The fit should be great with his former college quarterback. But the Hopkins suspension and my love for Moore as a prospect coming out of college makes Brown a tough sell at his price for me.
Los Angeles Rams, O/U 10.5 wins
Key returners
Cooper Kupp, ADP 5 (WR1)
Van Jefferson, ADP 194 (WR68)
Mattew Stafford, ADP 84 (QB11)
Darrell Henderson Jr., ADP 117 (RB43)
Cam Akers, ADP 32 (RB17)
Tyler Higbee, ADP 200 (TE20)
Newcomers
Allen Robinson, ADP 67 (WR26)
Kyren Williams, ADP 320 (RB89)
Departures
Odell Beckham Jr. (maybe)
Robert Woods
Love
I don’t care that he’s bound for regression. I don’t care that Allen Robinson is likely a better number two receiver than the combination of Robert Woods, Van Jefferson and Odell Beckham Jr. was for the Rams in 2021. Give me Cooper Kupp in the top four of every draft.
And speaking of Allen Robinson, I’m all in for 2022 and buying the dip. Perhaps a little too all in on a guy that clearly quit on his team last season and has been more inconsistent than people remember throughout his career, bad quarterback play aside. But that’s an internal debate for another day.
I have Robinson as my WR15, and I can’t see a scenario where I move him outside of my top 20 before draft season. He was still an elite getting open against man coverage and will compliment Kupp beautifully as the outside receiver in this offense. Robinson has been a contested catch monster until last season, and assuming that dropoff was mostly about a lack of effort, he should profit from plenty of deep looks from Matthew Stafford.
The Rams WR2 averaged 7.4 targets per game last year, and Woods has seen more volume than in years past. The talent steeply declines in the receiver room after Robinson, making him a safe bet for volume.
Robinson doesn’t have to return to his elite form to smash on his current ADP of WR27. And I think he does that with ease, making him arguably my favorite value in fantasy football right now.
Nobody is going to tell you what a great pick Tyler Higbee is if you take him with the last pick in fantasy drafts. But I don’t understand why Higbee is the TE23 off draft boards. He’s had three consecutive 500-yard seasons, and per PFF, he played more than 90% of the Rams’ snaps in 13 of his 17 non-injured games. He ranked ninth in total routes run, fourth in red-zone routes per game and 13th in targets. Higbee has the workload of a starting tight end and finished last season as the TE17 in points per game.
Lukewarm
Cam Akers might be the biggest swing player in fantasy football in 2022. He’s a borderline top 30 pick who didn’t rush for more than 55 yards in any playoff game last year despite his coach going to him to the chagrin of football fans across the world watching from home. He’s never been a feature back for an entire season entering year three, and he’s of course still just over a year removed from suffering a torn Achilles, which is usually a death knell for NFL running backs.
Akers returning in time to play in the playoffs after suffering the injury in July is already a feat that might be unmatched when looking at Achilles recoveries among NFL running backs. Nobody should have expected him to be any good, and maybe if we didn’t see him perform poorly, his ADP would actually be higher.
Can Cam Akers get back to the player we saw in the 2020-2021 playoffs? He rushed for 221 yards and 2 touchdowns in two postseason games that season. If he can get back to anything close to that workload and production, he’d be one of the most valuable backs in fantasy. It’s a huge question and history is not on his side. But the upside makes him an interesting upside gamble.
Part of the reason why people are unsure of the health or presumed role of Akers is that Sean McVay has talked up Darrell Henderson as being a second starter when given the chance. I don’t buy that, but you don’t have to buy that to take the swing on Henderson at his ADP, which is that of a pure handcuff. The problem with drafting Henderson is you can almost guarantee he is going to get hurt. He performs when he’s healthy, but breaks every time he’s leaned on.
Keep an eye on his health status coming off of recent knee surgery. But if Van Jefferson is going to be healthy for Week 1 or very soon after, he’s a fine late-round pick. Although I think he proved last season he’s far from a lock to produce as a fantasy starter should anything happen to either of the top two guys in this offense. So there are probably higher upside receivers in this range you can target.
The elbow stuff is slightly concerning, but I wouldn’t let that scare me off of Matthew Stafford at QB11. I think you can probably find better value by waiting or taking Tom Brady, who is going just two picks ahead of Stafford. Stafford is still a safe bet to turn in a top 12 season for your fantasy team.
Hate
None. Although if somebody is very risk averse and doesn’t want to gamble on Cam Akers, that’s a totally understandable stance. My stance is that you have to be willing to take risks to win your league, and that’s why I’m willing to bite on Akers.