Fantasy Football Team Previews: Colts and Titans
Jonathan Taylor should be the first player off every draft board this season
With fantasy football draft season right around the corner, we are previewing every team and fantasy-relevant player. The players are broken up into three categories: love, hate, and lukewarm. Today’s teams: Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans.
Here’s who we’ve previewed so far:
Average draft position (ADP) is evolving daily. The ADP listed for each player is as of the day of publication for each newsletter. All ADP is courtesy of FantasyPros.
Note: All win total lines are courtesy of FanDuel.
Indianapolis Colts, O/U 9.5 wins
Key returners
Jonathan Taylor, ADP 1 (RB1)
Michael Pittman, ADP 43 (WR16)
Nyhiem Hines, ADP 125 (RB45)
Parris Campbell ADP 287 (WR95)
Additions
Matt Ryan, ADP 139 (QB20)
Alec Pierce, ADP 191 (WR67)
Phillip Lindsay, ADP 368 (RB103)
Jelani Woods, ADP 291 (TE33)
Departures
Carson Wentz
Marlon Mack
T.Y. Hilton
Zach Pascal
Love
I’m all in on Jonathan Taylor at the number one overall pick this year. He’s still super young, his offense could be even better this year, and he has fewer red flags than the other contenders for the top spot. The 23-year-old put up 2,171 total yards last season, the fourth-most by a running back over the past 10 years. An improved offense could do wonders for Taylor, too, who averaged 6.8 yards per rush against six or fewer defenders in the box, which is a single-season record for Next Gen Stats, which dates back to 2016. Give me Taylor at the top spot despite the pass-catching ceiling.
Michael Pittman has been one of the most popular breakout picks for the last month, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see his ADP climb before most drafts take place in August. As of now, Pittman provides great value. He projects as the team’s undisputed number one option in the passing game and put together an unbelievable season last year in spite of his quarterback play. Per PFF, Pittman was one of just 11 wide receivers with at least 25% and 30% of their team’s targets and air yards in 2021.
Now on to his new quarterback. I was pretty surprised to see Matt Ryan going as QB20, which is right where he finished last season. Wentz was the QB15 in Indianapolis last season, and Ryan was a top 12 QB as recently as 2020. Ryan desperately needed a team with a good offensive line and good surrounding talent. He has that in Indianapolis, which puts him on the streaming radar this year.
I’m apparently all in on the Colts' offense this season because I love the value that Alec Pierce brings as the 67th receiver off the board. I think Pierce is the second most talented receiver on this team and could turn out to be the third-best fantasy asset in this offense.
I won’t go so far as to say Pierce will win Offensive ROY, but I do think the table is set for him to have a very nice season. He’s at least well worth the dart throw.
Lukewarm
Frank Reich is talking up Nyheim Hines for the 85th year in a row, so I’m not going to let that make me nervous about being too low on Hines. If you’re curious about what Reich had to say….
“I think that last year, as we’ve documented well, we got probably a tad more run-centric than we wanted to be, than I wanted us to be,” head coach Frank Reich said this week. “Just worked out the way the dynamics were. Nyheim still made an impact in games but not as much as normal and if you look at his years here, it’s been like every other year where he seems to have a better year.
“I was just laughing with [senior director of football communications Matt] Conti coming in here, talking about Nyheim and I said, ‘If I was a fantasy owner, if I was going to be in a fantasy league, I think I’d pick Nyheim this year. I think I’d consider drafting Nyheim. I think it’s worth [it] to consider drafting him.’”
I think Hines is a fine player who can be a flex play or slightly better in some weeks. The upside for more just isn’t there with a dominant force like Taylor in the fold.
Hate
Alright, I think I’m going to have to brand myself a Colts truther this offseason. There is nobody on this offense who I can consider a hate right now.
Tennessee Titans, O/U 9.5 wins
Key returners
Derrick Henry, ADP 4 (RB4)
Ryan Tannehill, ADP 165 (QB23)
Additions
Robert Woods, ADP 99 (WR40)
Austin Hooper, ADP 200 (TE24)
Treylon Burks, ADP 107 (WR42)
Hassan Haskins, ADP 240 (RB72)
Departures
A.J. Brown
Darrynton Evans
D’Onta Foreman
Anthony Firkser
Love
It’s pretty easy to tell I’m low on this offense because the two guys I love are not guys you even have to draft as of now. Hassan Haskins appears to be the clear Derrick Henry handcuff. Henry only played eight games last season after multiple years of historic workloads and is entering his age 28 season. Haskins has more upside than most guys you can get in the last round of your draft, and I would absolutely reach on him there. The Titans leaned on D’Onta Foreman without Henry last year, and should Henry miss time this season, Haskins could be that guy this time around.
I wouldn’t draft Austin Hooper, but he’s on my radar as a potential streamer and could be added to my team with one good week. The Titans completely remade their entire pass-catching group, and while I don’t think Hooper is anything more than just a guy, he’s in a position to at least carve out a nice role on this offense.
Lukewarm
I’ve already said my piece on Derrick Henry. I’m totally cool with him as a first-round pick, and I’m done doubting the guy until he completely breaks down. He was the RB14 last season despite playing in just eight games and averaged two more points per game than Jonathan Taylor, the eventual RB1. That upside is why he has to at least go round one.
But his age (28), workload (23.7 carries per game over the last three years, and his averages have increased in each of the last three seasons to a whopping 27.4 carries per game last year), and injury concerns after suffering a broken bone in his foot push him to the later portion of the first round for me.
I can see the upside for Treylon Burks, even if he was far from my favorite prospect in this draft. There’s not a single relevant pass catcher who returns from the 2021 Titans. But I just don’t think this offense is equipped to produce a high-end fantasy receiver.
That isn’t what Burks needs to do to live up to his draft selection, though. His talent to run after the catch can at least replace part of what A.J. Brown brought to the Titans. The Titans know how to create opportunities after the catch for big-bodied receivers, and Burks fits that mold. That and potential volume make him a fine selection at WR42.
I’m keeping an eye on Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Kyle Phillips. Neither young receiver should be on your draft radar, but one of them may pop enough to be on fantasy rosters later in the season if Woods isn’t back to his old self post-ACL tear and Burks takes time to develop.
Hate
I’m out on Robert Woods this season. Woods has been an awesome player, but he’s 30 and coming off a torn ACL in November 2021. This offense has never proven to be able to support multiple fantasy-relevant pass catchers. Per PFF, the Titans haven’t ranked higher than 26th in the league in pass-plate rate in non-garbage time situations since 2018, and they were 32nd last year.
And that’s why I’m out on Ryan Tannehill, too. To be clear, I think Tannehill could actually outperform his current ADP and be a streaming option some weeks. But I don’t think there’s a worthwhile ceiling for the veteran QB this year. Unless you’re in a two-QB league, I’d prioritize guys with higher ceilings ahead of Tannehill and only look to the veteran in a week where you need a plug-and-play option.