Fantasy Football Team Previews: Bears and Packers
Packers present plenty of chances at massive value. Is there anybody to get excited about in Chicago?
With fantasy football draft season right around the corner, we are previewing every team and fantasy-relevant player. The players are broken up into three categories: love, hate, and lukewarm. Today’s teams: Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears.
Here’s who we’ve previewed so far:
Average draft position (ADP) is evolving daily. The ADP listed for each player is as of the day of publication for each newsletter. All ADP is courtesy of FantasyPros.
Note: All win total lines are courtesy of FanDuel.
Green Bay Packers, O/U 10.5 wins
Key returners
Aaron Jones, ADP 19 (RB12)
AJ Dillon, ADP 57 (RB26)
Allen Lazard , ADP 115 (WR46)
Robert Tonyan, ADP 157 (TE18)
Randall Cobb, ADP 300 (WR99)
Key additions
Sammy Watkins, ADP 199 (WR69)
Christian Watson, ADP 135 (WR55)
Romeo Doubs ADP 96 (WR96)
Departures
Davante Adams
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Love
I’m trying to leave every draft with AJ Dillon this year. I still think Jones will be the number one back in this offense and will get used more through the air, but this is a true committee on the ground. The backfield will be potent enough to produce two top 24 backs.
I’m far from the first to say this, but I think Dillon is the second-best weapon on this offense behind Jones. Dillon has been one of the best pure rushers in the NFL in his first two seasons. Per PFF, Dillon has gained at least 2.0 yards after contact on a league-high 75.5% of his carries since he entered the league.
Dillon is a much better receiver than he gets credit for. He hauled in 34 targets for 313 yards and two touchdowns last season, and he had four games with more than 40 yards receiving. He’s not great, but it was jarring seeing a guy his size (247 pounds) possess the receiving chops that he does.
Dillon is my RB22 and is the first non-starting running back to appear in my updated ranks. Faced with the choice of J.K. Dobbins, Antonio Gibson or Dillon, I’m taking Dillon every time right now with Dobbins’ health being such a question mark. The offense is going to be good, Dillon is going to continue to earn more work and he has league-winning upside if Jones misses time.
Of course, the same is also true of Aaron Jones, which is part of why I love him at his price. I’m not buying him as a first-round pick like Dalton, but he’s my RB11. Next up is Saquon Barkley at RB12, so the bottom drops off after Jones if you’re talking about the potential downside.
Outside of injury, there is no circumstance where Jones won’t be an incredibly valuable fantasy asset in 2022. Jones is a great receiving back, and while I don’t buy that his volume in the games Davante Adams missed with the team in years past will carry over to 2022, there’s no denying he will have more opportunities. And he has the goods to cash in on those. Per PFF, Jones is just one of four running backs to average at least 2.0 yards per route run in the slot or out wide in the last three seasons.
And of course, the numbers without Adams are insane. He’s basically been around five receptions for 50 yards per game without Adams over the past few seasons. But the Packers have proven they aren’t interested in overtaxing Jones to keep him healthy, and they have more time to develop a game plan that doesn’t run purely through Jones without Adams in the fold.
Jones is the top weapon on this offense and should see an uptick in his opportunities through the air. It benefits the Packers to get both backs on the field as often as possible, and with Aaron Rodgers still leading the offense, that is going to lead to fantasy greatness.
Those are also the only two skill players on the Packers’ offense being drafted as fantasy starters, which means there is value to be had here. And the best candidate to exceed his draft capital is Allen Lazard.
Reading the tea leaves at Packers camp, it sounds like Lazard is going to get a shot to be the team’s number one receiver. He moved around from the slot (36.3%) to the outside (55.2%) plenty last season, so there are a lot of ways he can be used. But I don’t think anybody is buying Lazard is good enough to be a true number one receiver in the NFL.
He’s not a natural separator, so it probably works best for him to be moved all over the field and be used a lot in the slot to take advantage of his size at 6-foot-5, 227 pounds. He’s not going to be a superstar, but should you be taking the guy who is the favorite to be Aaron Rodgers number-one receiver above his current WR46 ADP?
Yes. Absolutely.
Lazard finished as the WR45 last season with Adams in the fold. There are going to be a host of others who step up, but it seems silly to be drafting Lazard at essentially the same spot he finished last season given the vacated targets in Green Bay.
I don’t have Robert Tonyan ranked as a top 12 tight end, but every 12-team league is going to have more than 12 tight ends taken. Do not let Tonyan go undrafted in your league, even if that means drafting two tight ends late. He missed half of last season with an ACL tear and was in the midst of the touchdown regression everybody knew was coming after 11 touchdowns on 52 receptions in 2020.
Tonyan is currently on the PUP, but it sounds like the team is at least operating with the goal of having him back by Week 1. Keep an eye on his health status, but Tonyan may end up being one of the top waiver wire names after Week 1 if he plays.
I have to put Aaron Rodgers in this category as well. There’s no denying that losing Adams hurts and Rodgers may no longer possess top three quarterback upside. He lost Adams and he doesn’t run the football, but he’s one of the best quarterbacks in the sport and has made ADP’s like this look dumb as recently as 2020.
Rodgers has played 10 full games since 2015 without Adams. The results are still pretty good: 258.5 passing yards per game, 2.2 touchdowns and 3 total interceptions. None of those games came with Jordy Nelson on the field either.
Aaron Rodgers per game numbers in 2021: 257.2 passing yards and 2.3 touchdowns per game to finish as the QB8 in points per game.
I’d rather be in too long than out too early on this legendary QB.
Lukewarm
I’m cautiously optimistic about Romeo Doubs. With the news of Christian Watson heading to the PUP after minor knee surgery in June, the hype seems to be building with Doubs.
I’m not grading Doubs on his current ADP (WR96) because I am certain that will rise with the Watson news. I like Doubs and am hopeful the fourth-round rookie can make an impact this year. I’m just not ready to say you should draft him yet.
Hate
I’m not putting myself through the Sammy Watkins experience in any format except for best ball. I’m fine missing out on a few spike weeks.
Christian Watson can still be a factor in the NFL and fantasy football this year, but he’s facing an uphill battle with his current injury status. If he makes his way back to practice soon, he will immediately become the second receiver to target on this team. But if things go the other way and Watson misses camp, there’s no way I’m drafting and stashing the rookie receiver at his price.
Chicago Bears, O/U 6.5 wins
Key returners
David Montgomery, ADP 31 (RB16)
Justin Fields, ADP 126 (QB17)
Khalil Herbert, ADP 187 (RB59)
Darnell Mooney, ADP 76 (WR30)
Cole Kmet, ADP 131 (TE13)
New additions
Byron Pringle, ADP 321 (WR109)
N’Keal Harry, ADP 336 (WR115)
Velus Jones Jr., ADP 313 (WR105)
Departures
Allen Robinson
Love
Is Justin Fields ready to make the leap? And even if he is, is the ecosystem in place in Chicago to go along for the ride with the second-year QB?
I’m not sure about the answer to the first question, but I think the answer to the second is undoubtedly no. When the situation is this bad, I look to go cheap. And that’s why I love Khalil Herbert.
He’s dirt cheap at (RB59). I was on record last season saying that I didn’t think Herbert would go back to a pure reserve when backfield mate David Montgomery came back from injury. I was wrong about the team’s actions, but I don’t think I was wrong about how good Herbert is.
When Montgomery was out, Herbert received 18 or more carries in all four games. He was the RB16 in that stretch and looked like a player with more upside than Montgomery. Montgomery is entering the last year of his contract under a new regime, and Herbert is a better scheme fit for the outside zone scheme the Bears seemed to be gearing up for in the draft with his one-cut ability.
At the very least, Montgomery is a bruising runner who has missed time the last two years. You’re going to want Herbert on your team the weeks Montgomery is out. And who knows, maybe the second-year player carves out a role this year under a new coaching staff.
Lukewarm
I like Darnell Mooney, but I’m not buying what others are selling who love him as a breakout candidate. I don’t think Mooney profiles as a true number one, and considering he’s going to have to be that and there isn’t anybody else who profiles as anything close to a true number two in this passing game, Mooney is going to struggle a bit with the attention defenses will give him.
But I do like Mooney as a player and think he will put another solid, albeit inefficient season. Hopefully, this coaching staff can scheme up more deep looks for Mooney and use Justin Fields’ rocket arm more than Matt Nagy did in 2021.
David Montgomery is what he is at this point, which is an RB2 in fantasy football. Listeners of the podcast know I don’t think he’s a great player, but an RB2 is a very valuable commodity in fantasy football.
I think the volume may not be as certain as the last few years, but he should still see plenty of touches. He will be a startable running back for your fantasy team. But his situation and lack of explosion holds him back from being anything more than that.
Cole Kmet is fine where he’s at, although there are a few tight ends in his range that I’d rather take shots on like Irv Smith and Tonyan. He’s a pure volume play, but I think it’s a stretch to say he has the upside to be much more than a streaming option at the position in this offense.
Hate
Matt Nagy should have been fired months earlier than he actually was for his blatant misuse of Justin Fields. The Bears only ran 67 read options last year, which is just inexcusable oversight of one of Fields’ greatest strengths. If he gets more rushing opportunities, that could give him a different ceiling in 2022.
Even with how bad last year was, Fields showed some flashes. But I think we need to wait another year before we think of Fields as any sort of fantasy option.
He finished 42nd in adjusted completion rate and had the second-lowest adjusted expected points added (EPA) per drop back and the third-lowest success rate per drop back according to NBC SportsEdge.
Fields’ price is low enough that it’s not going to hurt your team if he busts. But with his rushing upside and profile as a young and exciting quarterback, I fear some will reach for him as a starter late in fantasy drafts. I need to see him produce consistently before caring about him in fantasy.
Oh, and finally, I have no interest in drafting the other mish-mash of wide receivers on this roster.