Fantasy Football Team Previews: Dolphins and Patriots
Can Tua sustain two top 15 receivers? Is a star hiding in plain site in Foxborough?
With fantasy football draft season right around the corner, we are previewing every team and fantasy-relevant player. The players are broken up into three categories: love, hate, and lukewarm. Today’s teams: Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots
Here’s who we’ve previewed so far:
Average draft position (ADP) is evolving daily. The ADP listed for each player is as of the day of publication for each newsletter. All ADP is courtesy of FantasyPros.
Note: All win total lines are courtesy of FanDuel.
Miami Dolphins, O/U 8.5 win total
Key returners
Jaylen Waddle, ADP 39 (WR14)
Tua Tagovailoa, ADP 119 (QB16)
Myles Gaskin, ADP 239 (RB69)
Mike Gesicki, ADP 103 (TE11)
Additions
Tyreek Hill, ADP 21 (WR8)
Chase Edmonds, ADP 95 (RB36)
Raheem Mostert, ADP 130 (RB46)
Sony Michel, ADP 171 (RB57)
Cedrick Wilson, ADP 287 (WR94)
Departures
DeVante Parker
Albert Wilson
Love
I’d be lying if I didn’t admit to being a little uneasy about taking Tua Tagovailoa’s top weapon with my second pick in fantasy drafts. But come on. It’s Tyreek Hill.
Hill is one of the most complete receivers in the NFL. He might be the quickest player I’ve ever seen on a football field. He makes defenders look foolish, can accelerate at an insane rate and is an absolute nightmare to defend. He’s the type of player that can unlock an entire offense.
Hill turned into the most dangerous possession receiver in response to how teams defended the Chiefs last season. He is an underrated technician and is capable of winning at every level to make Tua’s life easier. Even with the Tua uneasiness, getting Hill this late in drafts feels great.
Lukewarm
If Tua has any game, he’s in a great situation to break out this year. Hill and Jaylen Waddle are two of the most dynamic receivers in the NFL. The Dolphins are set up to be a team that takes deep shots and gets the ball to its playmakers via quick passes. Tua came into the NFL with a reputation as a great deep ball thrower. He will need to prove it in the NFL to make himself and his dynamic receivers worth drafting at their price.
If he’d shown more in the last two years, I’d feel more emboldened about his potential. But it’s still a shot worth taking. If it doesn’t work out for Tua this season, it probably never will.
Cedrick Wilson was better than people remember in Dallas last season. He’s literally free in fantasy football right now and could be an early waiver priority.
Hate
This is painful to write. But I just can’t get behind Jaylen Waddle at his WR14 pricetag this year. He finished as the WR17 last year as a rookie, and I think he probably takes a small step back after the addition of Hill.
Sure, Hill will make his life easier. Waddle should be more efficient this year. But will he be efficient enough to be a top 15 receiver with 100 targets instead of the 140 he got last year? I wouldn’t bet on it. Unless Waddle takes another leap and Hill takes a step back, Waddle is the clear number two in this offense after being the alpha receiver with virtually no competition for targets a year ago.
The same concerns exist with Hill, but I believe that’s priced into his ADP. Waddle, on the other hand, is priced at his ceiling. There are other receivers in this range with a safer floor and higher upside.
Mike Gesicki is a talented player, but a stacked receiver room makes it tough for me to see the full time role we’re used to seeing out of him. Gesicki spent a majority of his time in the slot last season, which is also where Hill, Waddle and Wilson played much of last season. There are other tight ends in this range that a much better chance at a decent workload.
And finally, let’s get to the Dolphins' backfield. I know people will say follow the money, which would lead you to Chase Edmonds. He deserves to be ranked the highest of the group, but this is going to be a full-blown committee. And it wouldn’t shock me to see either Sony Michel or Raheem Mostert be the most productive back in this offense. And that’s reason enough for me to avoid this backfield altogether. If you want to take a shot on any of them, I prefer going cheap with Mostert or Michel depending on training camp reports.
New England Patriots, O/U 8.5 wins
Key returners
Damien Harris, ADP 55 (RB25)
Rhamondre Stevenson, ADP 99 (RB38)
Hunter Henry, ADP 158 (TE19)
Jonnu Smith, ADP 315 (TE36)
Mac Jones, ADP 153 (QB21)
Jakobi Meyers, ADP 180 (WR64)
Kendrick Bourne, ADP 268 (WR88)
James White, ADP 251 (RB74)
Newcomers
DeVante Parker, ADP 148 (WR57)
Tyquan Thornton, ADP 285 (WR93)
Pierre Strong, ADP 319 (RB86)
Kevin Harris, N/A
Ty Montgomery, N/A
Departures
Brandon Bolden
N’Keal Harry
Love
The biggest question when it comes to the New England Patriots this season: Is there any fantasy upside to this offense? And if so, is it enough to actually spend the time and draft assets trying to decipher which of the laundry list of players will be worthwhile for fantasy managers?
For the most part, I say no. But there is one hope….
Rhamondre Stevenson is the guy I want to draft on this offense. You don’t have to draft him to be a starting running back for your team, but I actually think he has the upside to turn into that.
It was almost as if Stevenson’s rookie season was a script written by Bill Belichick. Stevenson was a preseason star, but a fumble on his only carry in the season opener but Stevenson firmly in the doghouse, as he was inactive for the next three weeks.
Stevenson's snap percentage was inconsistent the rest of the season, but the production was quietly there. The counting stats will favor Damien Harris, who finished last season as the RB13. But the eye test told me (and many others) that Stevenson is the more explosive player of these two, and the one who has the upside to be more than an above-average NFL running back.
The status of James White’s return from his hip injury is still very much unknown, as the veteran opens camp on the PUP list. If somebody has to be relied upon in the passing game in this backfield, I think it’s Stevenson.
From weeks 8-17, once Stevenson was back in the lineup on a regular basis, Harris was the RB17 and Stevenson was the RB25. I don’t think it’s crazy to think Stevenson can pull even closer to Harris in year two. And that’s not how either is being drafted.
Lukewarm
Because I’m so in on Stevenson at his price, it’s hard to be anything more than lukewarm on Damien Harris. I think Harris is a fine player, and once you get to where he’s going (RB25), the name of the game is trying to find guys who are decent and will command volume.
Unless Stevenson emerges as a full-blown star (not impossible), Harris will still be a major factor if not the lead guy in this backfield. It’s worth noting that Harris is entering the last year of his rookie contract.
Even so, Harris is a solid NFL running back and can provide stability to fantasy teams this year.
A late-round shot on Pierre Strong might be worthwhile gamble. And for most leagues, he’s a guy to keep an eye on in early season waivers. Strong is an explosive runner, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he broke off a few runs early in the season that catch the eye of fantasy managers.
If I have to pick a Patriots receiver to draft, I think it has to be Jakobi Meyers, who was the best receiver on last year’s team and is still the best receiver the Patriots have.
The upside with Meyers isn’t great, but I could definitely see his 2021 yardage total (866) and receptions (83) repeating. Meyers scored his first two career NFL touchdowns last season, and according to Pro Football Focus, he’s just one of 11 wide receivers in NFL history with 1,500-plus receiving yards and five or fewer touchdowns in the first three seasons of their career.
I’m fine with drafting Kendrick Bourne at value, too. He was a boom or bust option last year, largely due to playing less than 50% of the team’s snaps on seven occasions in 2021 and never receiving more than eight targets in a game. Bourne still managed four games with more than 75 yards receiving.
Hate
I don’t love drafting any of these receivers, but I especially don’t like drafting a guy who is one of the worst separators in the NFL playing for a team that may still treat its quarterback with kid gloves. DeVante Parker is the most expensive of these options, and that’s likely because he had one blowup season in 2019. However, he’s crashed back down to earth the past two seasons. Although the Patriots have no great options, the outside receiver role is surprisingly crowded with Nelson Agholor, Parker and rookie Tyquan Thornton.
That probably means production will rotate among these three week-to-week, making all of them a headache for fantasy football.
The Patriots only threw the ball 44% of the time on first and second down with the score within six points, per CBS Sports. That was the third-lowest rate in the NFL, and the league average is around 51%.
I’m going to need to see a a multi-game stretch where I see the Patriots open the offense up for Mac Jones before he’s even on my radar as a streaming option. And this is what makes drafting any Patriots pass catcher a tough sell. That includes Hunter Henry, who wouldn’t have to do much to outpace his price at tight end. I’d still rather gamble on higher upside options in that range.
Replacing Josh McDaniels with a combination of Bill Belichick and Joe Judge calling plays doesn’t exactly give me confidence that the offense will resemble most other passing attacks in 2022.