Fantasy Football Team Previews: Lions and Vikings
Should you buy Swift as a top 12 pick this year?
With fantasy football draft season right around the corner, we are previewing every team and fantasy-relevant player. The players are broken up into three categories: love, hate, and lukewarm. Today’s teams: Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings.
Here’s who we’ve previewed so far:
Average draft position (ADP) is evolving daily. The ADP listed for each player is as of the day of publication for each newsletter. All ADP is courtesy of FantasyPros.
Note: All win total lines are courtesy of FanDuel.
Detroit Lions, O/U 6.5 wins
Key returners
D’Andre Swift, ADP 15 (RB9)
Jamaal Williams, ADP 148 (RB54)
Amon-Ra St. Brown, ADP 70 (WR28)
Josh Reynolds, ADP 322 (WR110)
T.J. Hockenson, ADP 62 (TE6)
Jared Goff, ADP 192 (QB27)
Key additions
D.J. Chark Jr., ADP 186 (WR63)
Jameson Williams, ADP 150 (WR58)
Departures
None
Love
I’m all in on D’Andre Swift this year. He’s my RB7 and in my current top 12 overall.
Offensive line expert Ross Tucker recently went on The Harris podcast and ranked the Lions’ as the third best offensive line in the NFL. I’ve been on the record for the last year or so saying that Swift is one of the most talented running backs in the NFL and could be a fantasy star if the situation were better than recent years.
It’s far from perfect, but the Lions should be a better team this year. Jared Goff can be a serviceable NFL quarterback as long as his offensive line and play calling allow him to play within the structure of an offense. If the Lions can do that this year, that’s great news for the offense and for Swift.
Only Christian McCaffrey (5.3) and Leonard Fournette (4.9) caught more passes per game than Swift (4.8) last season. One of the few blemishes on Swift’s profile is you’d like to see him be more productive outside of garbage time. According to PFF, nobody had a higher percentage of their receptions (32%) come in the fourth quarter when trailing by more than a touchdown last season. That’s not Swift’s fault, it’s the coaching staff.
The Lions likely don’t want to overburden Swift, who has struggled to stay healthy his first two years in the league. But give this dude an Aaron Jones-like workload and you’ll get production worthy of a top 12 player.
I really didn’t expect to want to draft DJ Chark this season, but his price of WR63 (and rising quickly) is too good to pass up. It seems like rookie Jameson Williams may not see the field until Novemeber. If it plays out that way, Chark would be the main beneficiary as a deep ball specialist.
I know we’re getting further away from 2019 when Chark looked like a potential breakout star. Chark has to take some of the blame for how bad he’s been in limited action in Jacksonville the past two years, but his situation hasn’t been good either. Chark has been one of the stars of Lions camp so far, and it sounds like we could see the receiver used in a lot of different ways.
“I mean, I had four different OCs in Jacksonville,” Chark said. “It’s nothing against Jacksonville, you know. It’s just different offenses asking me to do different things. And this offense that I’m in currently asks me to do things (I haven’t done before) — like, I’m lining up on both sides of the field. I’m not necessarily always in the boundary. Sometimes, it’s the (No. 3 receiver) outside. You know, a lot of times, I’m lining up at one, sometimes two. But here, I’m lined up one, two or three. Things like that, and just different concepts that they’re asking me to do that I just haven’t really done since maybe my second year in the league. … So it’s a lot of nuances in the playbook that’s allowing me to move around.”
Lukewarm
T.J. Hockenson is ranked about where he should be amongst his position group at TE6. Anybody who listens to our show will know my bigger issue is his overall rank, which is at 62 overall ahead of guys like Chris Godwin and Allen Robinson.
Hockenson would have to have a massive season to make drafting for scarcity at tight end worth passing up a stud at receiver. For that reason, I probably won’t have any of Hockenson on my teams. But I think Hockenson is a talented player who is a safe bet to finish top eight at the position if he’s healthy.
The price is right for Amon-Ra St. Brown, which has pleasantly surprised me. Perhaps as more home leagues draft, his ADP will start to raise as “normal” fantasy players remember just how good the second-year pro was down the stretch last season. But I think this is a legit good player who I’d be happy with as my WR3 depending on team structure.
Matt Harmon notes in Reception Perception that part of the reason for St. Brown’s improvement last year was the Lions figured out how to use him. He went from a below-average downfield weapon to a dynamite zone beater closer to the line of scrimmage. St. Brown is not good at beating man or press man coverage, so the additions of Chark — and in the long term Williams — mesh nicely with his skillset. With more room to operate around the line of scrimmage, I like the chances of a top 30 season for St. Brown.
Jamaal Williams is a worthy late-round dart throw. He’s probably going to get work in this offense as the team attempts to keep Swift healthy. And since Swift has had issues staying healthy in each of his first seasons, there’s upside for a few games where Williams is the main show in the backfield.
Hate
If Jameson Williams doesn’t see the field until November, he’s going to take a significant tumble in my ranks. If reports about his health don’t improve, he’s not draftable in leagues without IR spots. Let somebody else draft him and attempt to stash him for two months. As injuries and bye weeks start to pile up, Williams is going to be very difficult to roster. I’d rather be a contending team buying low on him a few weeks before his return instead of trying to stash him for two months.
Jared Goff isn’t on radars for standard leagues right now. Even if Detroit looks like a functional football team and Goff has some good games, I can’t see myself trusting Goff as my fantasy starter at any point this year.
Minnesota Vikings, O/U 9.5 wins
Key returners
Dalvin Cook, ADP 7 (RB5)
Alexander Mattison, ADP 111 (RB 42)
Justin Jefferson, ADP 6 (WR2)
Adam Thielen, ADP 73 (WR30)
K.J. Osborn, ADP 224 (WR76)
Irv Smith Jr., ADP 155 (TE15)
Key additions
Albert Wilson, WR, N/A
Ty Chandler, RB, N/A
Jalen Nailor, ADP 383 (WR134)
Departures
Tyler Conklin
Chris Herndon
Love
Give me Justin Jefferson on every team this year. You’re going to need a top-six pick to have a chance at him, but I’d consider him as high as number three overall as long as Jonathan Taylor and Christian McCaffrey are the first two picks in your draft.
Jefferson is a special player and a great candidate to be thought of as the best receiver in the NFL when we’re looking ahead to the 2023 fantasy football season.
Justin Jefferson now owns the multiple top-20 all-time scores in success rate vs. press coverage at 82.3% and 82.8%. At 78% success rate vs. man coverage and clearing 85% success rate vs. zone, he’s entered some rarified air.
Some players to hit or approach all three of these benchmarks in RP history: Stefon Diggs, Michael Thomas, Odell Beckham, Antonio Brown and Davante Adams. We’re talking about the best of the best the NFL has to offer. That is the company that Justin Jefferson keeps right now. He’s ready to join the elite tier of NFL receivers at this stage of his career.
Clearly, Jefferson can win anywhere. Maybe if the Vikings actually pass the ball more and lean into more three-receiver sets in 2022, Jefferson can get some more opportunities in the slot. He lined up there just 24% of the time last season, but that was his primary role at LSU with Ja’Marr chase on the outside. This could lead to even more consistent volume for Jefferson in 2022.
And we’ve talked about this plenty on the show, but Jefferson *only* scored 10 touchdowns last season. That’s a great number, but when you rack up over 1,600 yards receiving, there’s upside for more touchdowns. The Vikings were one of the most run-heavy redzone teams in the NFL last season. The Rams offense guided by current Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell ranked top 10 in passing rate in the redzone in 2022.
And that’s a big selling point for Adam Thielen, too. Thielen is tied for third with Tyreek Hill in receiving touchdowns over the past three seasons despite never playing more than 15 games in any of those seasons. Kirk Cousins completed nearly 87% of his redzone attempts to Thielen a year ago, and the veteran receiver finished the season as the WR14 in points per game among receivers to play in more than three games.
His red zone targets, however, have actually increased slightly, from 1.06 in 2017-18 to 1.18 in 2020-21 -- a focus that O'Connell, Cousins and Thielen are all working to preserve this summer.
— ESPN
I’m not going crazy for a 32-year-old receiver who suffered from multiple hamstring and ankle injuries the past few years. Thielen has been nothing but a very good fantasy option when on the field the past few years, and it’s tough to not love taking the risk at WR30.
I’m a few spots higher than the market right now on Dalvin Cook, who I have as my RB3. Cook seems to be the first of the elite options that people try to poke holes in. And I get it. Cook is a stressful running back to have on your team because it always feels like he’s playing through some sort of injury.
But for a guy that gets the injury-prone tag, Cook has been one of the most reliable backs in the NFL the past few seasons. He’s played at least 13 games in each of the last three years and played 10 or more games every year since tearing his ACL as a rookie. He’s topped 1,300 scrimmage yards each of the last three seasons and maxed out at 1,918 in 2020.
The bottom line is this: He’s one of the best running backs in the NFL and one of the safest bets in fantasy to be a workhorse back. Even if the Vikings pass the ball a little more in 2022, I don’t see a world where a healthy Cook isn’t a workhorse, which is the most valuable commodity in fantasy football.
Lukewarm
Irv Smith Jr. would have been on the love list if not for another unfortunate injury before the season. Thankfully, the injury to his thumb and subsequent surgery seems relatively minor, as the team is at least leaving the door open for a Week 1 return. If your draft isn’t until later this month, you’ll obviously have more information on his status and can act accordingly. For now, I have no issue taking Smith (my TE12) with my last pick and dropping him for another streamer at the position if we find out he’s not playing in Week 1. He’s even more viable if your league has IR spots.
There’s going to be some more excitement for K.J. Osborn this season as the drumbeat gets louder for three-receiver sets in Minnesota. But he has two really, really good receiving options in front of him, an elite running back, and another good young player in Smith beside him. A lot has to break Osborn’s way to be anything more than a boom or bust WR5 in fantasy.
Kirk Cousins is going to be the same as he’s always been: He’ll end the season with a nice point total and QB finish, but let you down in big spots when you actually rely on him. He has good weapons and is a fine quarterback worthy of being one of the top weekly streamers.
Hate
This is going to be an unpopular opinion, but I’m out on Alexander Mattison at his RB42 price tag this season. This could easily blow up in my face with one Dalvin Cook injury, but that’s not something I’m in the business of attempting to predict. With that in mind, I don’t like drafting a guy who will never be more than a backup on his own team without injury.
I know a lot of people feel like the Vikings’ new coaching staff might try to scale Cook’s workload back a bit, which could lead to fantasy relevance for Mattison. I don’t know why it’s a guarantee for a career backup entering the final year of his contract to have more volume this year or even remain the same. The Vikings also brought in one of my favorite late-round rookies in running back Ty Chandler who could be Mattison’s successor. And for what it’s worth, I think Kene Nwangwu has a chance to be a good NFL running back.
In the 12 games that Mattison played with Cook last season, he had 48 carries for 135 yards and one touchdown. There’s no denying Mattison has been one of the best pure handcuffs in the NFL. He had 86 carries for 356 yards and three touchdowns in four games without Cook in 2021. In my mind, he’s the best pure handcuff in the NFL at best. But with a new coaching staff and a back I like in Chandler, I could see a smaller role than we’re used to for Mattison if Cook misses time.
So let’s quit drafting him ahead of guys like Allen Lazard, Kirk Cousins, Pat Freiermuth, Chris Olave, Kadarius Toney and Isaiah Spiller who could help fantasy teams on a weekly basis without needing somebody to go down in front of them.