Fantasy Football Team Previews: 49ers and Seahawks
Were we a year early on the Brandon Aiyuk breakout? Can anybody in Seattle live up to their talent with THAT quarterback?
With fantasy football draft season right around the corner, we are previewing every team and fantasy-relevant player. The players are broken up into three categories: love, hate, and lukewarm. Today’s teams: San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks.
Here’s who we’ve previewed so far:
Average draft position (ADP) is evolving daily. The ADP listed for each player is as of the day of publication for each newsletter. Keep in mind that we’re to the point where ADP is changing almost by the hour. All ADP is courtesy of FantasyPros.
Note: All win total lines are courtesy of FanDuel.
San Francisco 49ers O/U 9.5 wins
Key returners
Deebo Samuel, ADP 18 (WR7)
Brandon Aiyuk, ADP 98 (WR39)
Elijah Mitchell, ADP 46 (RB23)
Trey Sermon, ADP 221 (RB65)
Jeff Wilson, ADP 260 (RB76)
George Kittle, ADP 42 (TE4)
Trey Lance, ADP 99 (QB13)
Newcomers
Tyrion Davis-Price, ADP 187 (RB59)
Danny Gray, N/A
Brock Purdy, N/A
Departures
Raheem Mostert
Mohamed Sanu
Jimmy Garoppolo (still there but no longer the starter)
Love
I’m ready to be hurt again. Dalton mentioned Brandon Aiyuk as a sleeper on the most recent podcast, to which I agree and said he is maybe the number one post-hype sleeper in fantasy football.
Aiyuk is currently going as the WR39 and just barely inside the top 100 overall. For as bad as last year felt — and it was basically rock bottom there for a little bit — Aiyuk finished the season as the WR36. It makes very little sense to me why he’s currently going below that mark in drafts right now.
Aiyuk clearly got in the Kyle Shanahan doghouse to start last season and was virtually unplayable for two months in fantasy. Once he was around a 90% snap percentage — which happened every week from Week 7 on — Aiyuk was the WR19. That’s close to where his biggest boosters (hand up) told you to draft him last season.
Nobody is telling you to reach that high for Aiyuk this time around. But he’s currently one of the best values in drafts at his spot. He’s a Reception Perception darling as he gets open and makes plays at every level of the field, and by all reports he’s been an excellent fit with Trey Lance so far. And perhaps most importantly, he seems to finally have the trust of his coach.
Hopefully, this is the year the stars finally align for George Kittle. Last year was his worst season as far as yards per game since he was a rookie, although I’m putting that much more on his quarterback than him. If Kittle can play 14 games for a second year in a row, I love getting him in the fourth round and as the fourth tight end off the board. He’s my TE3 and it’s really tempting to move him ahead of Mark Andrews at TE2.
Like Aiyuk, Kittle should benefit from an offense more willing to take deep shots in the passing game. Per PFF, since entering the league in 2017, Kittle ranks seventh in yards per route run (2.49), trailing only Julio Jones, Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, Michael Thomas, Ja’Marr Chase and Deebo Samuel. Perhaps some positive touchdown regression will finally come for the leagues second-best tight end, as Kittle has yet to top six receiving touchdowns in a season.
I also love the new guy under center who’s responsible for much of the excitment surrounding the 49ers’ offense this year in Trey Lance. Dalton and I both made this point on this week’s podcast, but if you want to draft Jalen Hurts at QB7, you’re better off waiting to take Lance late in your draft.
Lance had three extended appearances last season where he totaled 31 carries. That sort of volume may not continue for a whole season, but it seems likely he’ll blow past 100 carries this season. Lance looked far away as a passer in his brief playing time last season, but the physical tools are there. Namely, Lance may already have one of the five biggest arms at the position.
Kyle Shanahan traded up for this guy at No. 3 overall and is perfectly content with moving on from Jimmy Garoppolo and handing the team to Lance. Jimmy G was average at best last season, but the team was still one game away from the Super Bowl!
I’m going to give Kyle Shanahan the benefit of the doubt, meaning I believe the raw tools will translate to good quarterback play from Lance. Even if it doesn’t, the rushing upside alone is probably good enough for fantasy. And if by some chance that’s not true, you can just cut him and start over with nothing more than a late-round pick burned.
Lukewarm
I think Deebo Samuel is awesome and I hate not being all in again this year. What he did last year on his way to the overall WR2 was incredible. I believe the reports that say Aiyuk and Lance have better chemistry than Lance and Samuel at the moment because Aiyuk is better down the field, which is where Lance is most comfortable for now. We also have to acknowledge that Samuel wasn’t around the team a lot of the offseason as he worked out a new contract, so he’s playing catchup in trying to build chemistry with his new quarterback.
I have absolutely no issue with taking Deebo where he’s going, but I think that’s pretty close to his ceiling. I don’t think he’ll be able to repeat his passing game production of over 1,400 receiving yards if Kittle and Aiyuk have the years I think they can. The good news is Samuel doesn’t have to do that if he is truly fine with being used as a running back.
From Week 10 on, Samuel averaged seven rush attempts and nearly 43 yards per game on the ground. In fact, 343 of his 365 rushing yards came from Week 10 on. That does add some extra injury concerns for a guy whose struggled to stay healthy at times in college and in the NFL, but it also gives him a very high floor despite potential receiving volume concerns as long as he can withstand the beating.
Hate
There is absolutely no chance I’m going to try to attempt to figure out the San Francisco backfield this year. Aiyuk may have burned a lot of us for a few months, but Trey Sermon was a fantasy darling before last year and contributed absolutely nothing in 2021. This dude was going as a top 5-6 round pick and was a healthy scratch in Week 1.
It seems like Elijah Mitchell is going to be the lead guy this year as he was when healthy last year. But we don’t really know if the 49ers wanted to make him their unquestioned lead back because Raheem Mostert lasted two plays before suffering a season-ending injury, Sermon was in the doghouse and Jeff Wilson missed a lot of time.
Mitchell could be the lead guy for a month and then have the rug ripped out from under him. You just never know with Shanahan. It’s also worth noting that Mitchell likely isn’t gong to catch many passes, will probably share the backfield with at least one other running back and will also give up carries to Samuel.
I’m not taking the shot on Mitchell at RB23, and I’m probably out on Sermon, Wilson and rookie Tyrion Davis-Price late in drafts. I’d rather lose my league because somebody else guessed correctly on Kyle Shanahan Roulette instead of losing because I was shot right between the eyes by Shanahan once again.
Seattle Seahawks O/U 5.5 wins
Key returners
DK Metcalf, ADP 47 (WR17)
Tyler Lockett, ADP 96 (WR38)
Rashaad Penny, ADP 81 (RB31)
Dee Eskridge, ADP 394 (WR138)
Newcomers
Ken Walker III, ADP 89 (RB34)
Noah Fant, ADP 168 (TE17)
Bo Melton, N/A
Dareke Young, N/A
Departures
Russell Wilson
Chris Carson
Gerald Everett
Love
I’m going to stay completely on brand and go with Tyler Lockett as my only love from this team. At WR38, you don’t have to draft him to be a starter for your fantasy team and he will probably produce at a starter level. I know the quarterback situation is dire with Drew Lock and Geno Smith in town, but I still have Lockett as my WR32.
People forget how good this guy is, and with even league-average quarterback play, he’d be ranked closer to 20 than 40 by just about everybody. It’s a small sample size, but Lockett was the WR27 in the three games started by Geno Smith last season. Lockett has never been consistent, and that surely won’t change this year. I’m constantly digging for reseasons to lower him a bit in my ranks, but he’s a good gamble at his current price based on his talent alone.
As for the rest of this roster at price….
Lukewarm
Even though everybody in the world is worried about drafting DK Metcalf at WR17, he really shouldn’t go much lower than that because he’s one of the 10 best receivers in football. His quarterback play is probably going to be terrible, and the Seahawks surely won’t pick this year to change their ways as a run-first team that consistently ranks close to the bottom in total plays.
Still, Metcalf is an unbelievable talent capable of overcoming a terrible situation any given week. Heck, any given play.
It does feel gross to draft a receiver in this offense. And it feels even worse to have to start one every week. But I’m not discounting the chance that talent could trump bad situation here and Metcalf could make this ADP look dumb.
Noah Fant is off the redraft radar in standard leagues, which is appropriate given the quarterback situation and receivers who are better pass catchers on the roster. Fant is still one of the 12 most talented tight ends in the league, though, and should have streaming upside once bye weeks and injuries become a factor.
If I have to pick a running back in this offense, give me the rookie Ken Walker III, the cheaper of the two right now in ADP. I have Walker as my RB36, slightly lower than ADP but two spots above where I have Rashaad Penny ranked.
I think Walker is the best pure rusher in his draft class. He has the ability to pop off big plays frequently and has great vision and instincts as a runner. He led the FBS in yards after contact (1,168) and was second in runs of 10-plus yards (46).
We just have no idea how good a pass catcher he is, as he only totaled 13 receptions last year at Michigan State. But the Spartans almost never threw to their running backs in 2021. I’m not going crazy with Pete Carrol saying he trusts Walker to be a three-down back, but it certainly isn’t a bad thing that he said.
I really liked Walker as a prospect and am more willing to take a gamble on his upside than Penny.
Hate
And speaking of Rashaad Penny, I’m not taking the bait of his otherwordly finish to last year. If he was on your team, there’s a very good chance he won you your league. He was the overall RB1 from Weeks 13-17 last year and topped 25 points twice.
If this were Penny’s first or second year, I’d be a lot more likely to trust that breakout. But this was year four, and his 749 rushing yards last year almost match his career total in the first three seasons. Whether it’s been injuries (he’s only played more than 10 games once) or getting outplayed by Chris Carson, Penny has never had more than 119 carries in a season.
I don’t think Seattle drafts Walker in the second round if it has complete faith in Penny, who is currently on a one-year prove-it deal after having his fifth-year option declined by the team.
Drafting Michigan State’s Ken Walker III with the 41st pick sends a similar message. Walker was one of the best running backs in college football last season. He rushed for 1,636 yards while averaging 6.2 yards per carry with 18 rushing touchdowns. He was a consensus All-American and the Big Ten’s running back of the year. Walker was also one of the first running backs Morton began scouting ahead of the draft and was elated when the pick came in on draft right.
“I was like, oh my gosh, this is it,” Seattle running backs coach Chad Morton thought to himself. “This is the guy right there.”
Because of all his past health concerns, I’m keeping a closer eye on his status right now than most, and he’s currently sidelined with a groin injury. And while Walker’s pass catching chops are a bit of an unknown, I can say with confidence that I don’t think Penny will catch many passes this year. He has just 23 receptions in four seasons, which includes just six last season.
Don’t bother with either Seattle quarterback. The only reason we care about Smith or Lock is we’re hoping either can be good enough to make the other studs good fantasy picks.