Fantasy Football Team Previews: Eagles and Commanders
Why both teams' lead backs and A.J. Brown are busts in 2022.
With fantasy football draft season right around the corner, we are previewing every team and fantasy-relevant player. The players are broken up into three categories: love, hate, and lukewarm. Today’s teams: Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants
Here’s who we’ve previewed so far:
Average draft position (ADP) is evolving daily. The ADP listed for each player is as of the day of publication for each newsletter. All ADP is courtesy of FantasyPros.
Note: All win total lines are courtesy of FanDuel.
Philadelphia Eagles, O/U 9.5 wins
Key returners
Jalen Hurts, ADP 65 (QB7)
Kenneth Gainwell, ADP 143 (RB50)
Miles Sanders, ADP 67 (RB28)
DeVonta Smith, ADP 87 (WR36)
Dallas Goedert, ADP 73 (TE8)
Additions
A.J. Brown, ADP 28 (WR11)
Zach Pascal, ADP 346 (WR122)
Departures
None of note. They only lost 86 carries and 2 targets off last year’s team.
Love
The Eagles are a very tough team to nail down ahead of this season. From Week 8 on, they attempted just 25.1 passes per game and rode that run-heavy approach to a playoff birth. You don’t trade for A.J. Brown if there isn’t a plan to pass the ball more, but this all hinges on Jalen Hurts improving as a passer.
I’m going cheap with the only guy I love in this offense in Kenneth Gainwell. He had an up and down rookie season, but I’m all for taking bets on other backs not named Miles Sanders in this backfield. This coaching staff doesn’t seem to want to give Sanders a full workload, and Gainwell is the top candidate to earn a role in the backfield alongside Sanders (although, keep an eye on undrafted rookie Kennedy Brooks).
Gainwell earned 50 targets, four of which came inside the 10-yard line, and had eight carries inside the 10, which was more than Sanders had in a shocking zero touchdown campaign. It wouldn’t surprise me if Gainwell earns more trust and continues to cut into Sanders’ workload and possibly even be the most valuable running back in this offense. It’s a cheap bet to make at RB50.
Lukewarm
I think Jalen Hurts is priced about right at QB7, although I would have him a few spots lower behind safer veterans such as Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson. Hurts has undeniable rushing upside, as he totaled nearly 800 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns in his first full season as a starter last year. You can listen to Dalton and I dissect the Hurts situation more at the beginning of this rankings show, but I have some major questions about him as a passer. Hurts was 26th in accuracy rating, 31st in true completion percentage and 29th in true passer rating, per player profile.
An average season as a passer could see him finish much higher than my rank, but any regression as a rusher in addition to no growth as a passer could mean a disappointing year for Hurts and his fantasy managers.
Hurts limitations are also why I’m not bullish on any of his weapons.
DeVonta Smith finished WR31 last season without Brown in the fold. I really like Smith as a player, but I think any uptick in passing volume will be offset by the targets Brown commands. I think this rank is pretty close to Smith’s ceiling barring injuries to others or an unforseen jump from Hurts as a passer.
I think Dallas Goedert’s ADP is about right, too. If you’re just talking from a pure talent perspective, he’s probably one of my favorite tight ends once you get past the top 5 elite players at the position. The problem with taking Goedert at 73 is how much more upside does he have than a guy like Irv Smith? I think the upside is pretty similar, and Smith is going 60 picks later in drafts.
Hate
This is tough because I love A.J. Brown as a player. I’m just nervous about this situation and think WR11 is too rich. When my updated ranks come out next week, I’ll only have Brown a handful of spots lower, but I think that’s a big difference when you’re talking about guys this early in the draft.
For as much as I like Brown, whether it’s been because of his health, situation or his own inconsistencies, he’s never finished higher than WR11. I think Brown’s ceiling has taken a hit in this offense and it’s completely reasonable to say Hurts is a downgrade from Ryan Tannehill as a passer. PFF’s Ian Hartitz looked at the top scoring PPR running back, receivers and tight ends on a per-game basis from offenses with a run-heavy quarterback since 2010. Run-heavy was defined as 80 rush attempts in a season.
Brown is awesome, but unless his quarterback evolves in 2022, I think it’s a lot to ask for him to be a top 12 receiver.
After a lot of internal debate, I’d like to formally announce that I’m out on Miles Sanders this year. I know he’s a candidate for major positive regression. It’s almost impossible to have 754 rushing yards and zero rushing touchdowns, but that’s what he did in 2021.
But dig a little deeper and you’ll see it wasn’t just rotten luck for Sanders last year. He was fourth among the team’s running backs in touches inside the 10-yard line, and that doesn’t even include Hurts. He had just three goal-line touches last season. His profile is everyone’s worst nightmare for a fantasy running back: A between the 20s rusher who also isn’t the top passing option out of the backfield.
Sanders’ expected fantasy points per game in 2021 ranked him in the same spot as his actual points per game (RB32).
The Eagles don’t seem to believe in Sanders, so it’s tough for me to get on board. I’ve never thought he was a great player, and if he were, he would have smashed last season running behind the number one run-blocking offensive line. Entering a contract year under a head coach that was not around when he was drafted by the team, it’s now or never for Sanders. And I think it’s never.
Washington Commanders, O/U 8.5
Key returners
Antonio Gibson, ADP 34 (RB19)
J.D. McKissic, ADP 137 (RB48)
Terry McLaurin, ADP 43 (WR16)
Curtis Samuel, ADP 221 (WR75)
Logan Thomas, ADP 190 (TE21)
Additions
Jahan Dotson, ADP 177 (WR64)
Brian Robinson, ADP 202 (RB62)
Departures
Ricky Seals-Jones
Love
Might this finally be the year Terry McLaurin has a good enough quarterback to put up numbers that match his potential as a player?
The fourth-year pro has had back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons despite being dealt maybe the worst quarterback situation in the league over the past two years. The Commanders have ranked dead-last in average depth of target (6.8) over the last two seasons despite McLaurin being one of the best deep-ball receivers in the league.
If nothing else, Wentz at least has the arm to give McLaurin more chances to make plays down the field. McLaurin hasn’t broken the top 20 yet, as he’s turned in WR25 and WR21 finishes the last two years. His performance despite a terrible situation is why I think he has a rock solid floor of top 24 this season. He saw a contested target on 34.2% of his targets despite posting one of the best separation rates in the league. In other words, his quarterback play was truly garbage.
He profiles as one of the top receivers in the league on Reception Perception, as McLaurin ranked in the 94th percentile against man and press coverage. As Matt Harmon says, this is Stefon Diggs before he found his way to the Bills.
Wentz lifted a less-established Michael Pittman to a WR21 finish last year. I feel very confident in predicting McLaurin to finish in the top 20 with upside to be in the top 12. And if Wentz has a better season than we can foresee right now, who knows how high McLaurin could climb.
I think Jahan Dotson is going to work in the slot from day one in this offense. Although Curtis Samuel will be plenty involved, the price differential between the two is about right. Dotson isn’t a top-tier prospect, but he’s an excellent route runner and commanded a ton of volume in college as a result. I think he’s the number two target in this offense.
Lukewarm
Logan Thomas won’t and shouldn’t be drafted, as the veteran is currently on the PUP recovering from last season’s ACL tear. When Thomas returns, he should immediately be on your waiver wire radar, though. Despite an injury-riddled season and leaving some of the five games he played early due to injury, Thomas still ranked 10th in points per game at tight end. There’s a chance he’s not the same guy at age 31 after an ACL tear. But it’s worth taking the waiver gamble on a guy whose been a top 12 tight end when on the field the last two seasons.
Carson Wentz is probably going to be about what he was last year, which was a middling high-end QB2 with weekly streaming upside. He was a top 12 quarterback in 35% of his games last season. He’s an upgrade over what Washington has had in the past at the position, but I’m not going to act like the Commanders are suddenly getting an awesome player here.
Curtis Samuel is basically free, and I think that’s about right given the season he just had and the competition in the room. There’s upside for him to turn into a useful fantasy player, and that upside is worth a late round shot.
Brian Robinson has the potential to be a touchdown guy with low yardage totals, so I’m not sure how useful that is in traditional fantasy football where you have to make start/sit decisions. J.D. McKissic can be a nice fantasy weapon with his passing game usage. He ranks second among running backs in receptions and third in yards since 2020 despite missing six games last season. But his weekly value is very dependent on game script. Is Washington playing from behind? Is the team in two-minute drill hurry up mode where he gets left in the game to score a rushing touchdown at the end of the drive?
The bottom line is if all three backs are involved, we probably won’t love any of them for fantasy. If it’s only two guys, both can be extremely valuable for fantasy managers.
Hate
The fantasy football community has had sky high hopes for Antonio Gibson in his first two years, even going so far as to project a Christian McCaffrey type of role last season. Gibson did finish as the RB12 last season, but he was just the RB20 in points per game. His 42 receptions for nearly 300 yards last season is respectable, but a disappointing number for a guy who was more receiver than running back in college.
McKissic’s return puts a ceiling on what we can expect from Gibson as a pass catcher. And the team invested a third round pick in Robinson, a power runner who profiles as a short yardage specialist. Gibson ranked fifth in total redzone opportunities (53) last season, and it’s very possible that number shrinks this year.
But we have to acknowledge we have no idea how the usage is going to shake out. Maybe Gibson plays up to his talent in a way he hasn’t his first two seasons and August questions about his workload feel dumb. At best, Gibson is a fringe RB1 with a good but not great workload. At worst, he’s a between the 20s back, which is a pretty bad worst-case. There are far too many unknowns with Gibson (my RB27) for me to take him where he’s currently priced.