Fantasy Football Team Previews: Cowboys and Giants
The table is set for CeeDee Lamb to explode. What is Saquon Barkley's ceiling?
With fantasy football draft season right around the corner, we are previewing every team and fantasy-relevant player. The players are broken up into three categories: love, hate, and lukewarm. Today’s teams: Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants
Here’s who we’ve previewed so far:
Average draft position (ADP) is evolving daily. The ADP listed for each player is as of the day of publication for each newsletter. All ADP is courtesy of FantasyPros.
Note: All win total lines are courtesy of FanDuel.
Dallas Cowboys, O/U 10.5 wins
Key returners
Dak Prescott, ADP 71 (QB8)
Ezekiel Elliott, ADP 31 (RB16)
Tony Pollard, ADP 85 (RB31)
CeeDee Lamb, ADP 17 (WR6)
Michael Gallup, ADP 121 (WR49)
Dalton Schultz, ADP 66 (TE7)
Additions
James Washington, ADP 310 (WR104)
Jalen Tolbert, ADDP 187 (WR67)
Departures
Amari Cooper
Cedrick Wilson
Blake Jarwin
Love
CeeDee Lamb didn’t have the monster fantasy season everybody hoped for in 2021, but that isn’t being held against him when projecting this season. And that’s a good thing.
The departure of Amari Cooper to the Browns has cleared the deck for Lamb to be a true number one wide receiver. I have a hard time seeing any scenario where Lamb finishes outside of the top 12 at his position if he turns in a healthy season. I also believe he has the ability to finish as the overall WR1.
Lamb ranks in the 79th percentile as a separator against zone coverage, 82nd percentile against press coverage and 91st percentile against man coverage, per Matt Harmon’s reception perception. He can win everywhere. Move him to the outside and he’s a fantastic vertical separator with a 75% contested catch rate. He can line up on the inside and win after the catch, too, as he broke multiple tackles on 15% of his routes that were considered “in space” by reception perception.
Lamb has the makings of a true number one receiver and will finally be in that role in his third season.
Tony Pollard probably isn’t ever going to be what his biggest fans wish for as long as Ezekiel Elliott is in town. But I love taking shots on him in the seventh round of drafts.
Pollard was much more effective than Elliott with his touches last season and passes the eye test more than Zeke at this point.
Pollard won’t overtake Elliott, but he has a chance to earn an even bigger workload than last year with the departure of Cooper and the uncertain status of Gallup’s health.
Lukewarm
I’ve long been a Dak Prescott skeptic, at least when it comes to him being ranked among the top 5 fantasy quarterbacks, which feels like where he’s been the last few preseasons. In his last two full seasons, Prescott finished as the QB3 and QB9. Taking him as the QB8 feels exactly right.
There are valid concerns. The Cowboys receiver room looks pretty scary after Lamb, and their offensive line lost a young star in La’el Collins to the Bengals. Still, there are enough weapons in Dallas and Prescott is good enough to be a clear top 10 quarterback in drafts. One thing to watch with Prescott this season will be his rushing. Take away his season lost to injury and he had a career-low in rushing yards (146) and touchdowns (1) last season in his first year back from the ankle injury. Perhaps being two years removed from the injury means we can hope for a little more production on the ground.
I land firmly in the middle of the never-ending Ezekiel Elliott debate. I don’t think he’s washed, but I don’t think he’s the same superstar running back of years past anymore. Even before Elliott suffered the knee injury, I thought he looked pretty average in the first month of the 2021 season.
He should be commended for playing the entire season and producing well enough to give fantasy managers an RB6 season. But he finished at RB14 in points per game, which is about where I think his value is this season.
Ownership seems determined to trot Elliott and his bloated contract on the field ahead of Pollard every week. His 50 red zone touches are the fifth most of any running back in 2021, and he got the ball 12 times in goal-to-go situations. As long as that happens, he is going to have the volume and touchdown upside to be a top 20 back. But hoping he can exceed expectations at this point in his career (he has 1,650 carries, which is 249 more than Derrick Henry) is a dangerous game.
If the Cowboys don’t bring in another receiver before the season, I may move Jalen Tolbert into the love category. I think he was an underrated receiver in the NFL Draft process and the rookie could have a massive opportunity to contribute right away in a high-powered offense. It won’t shock me if either Will Fuller or Odell Beckham Jr. is in Dallas by Week 1. And if they aren’t, I like Tolbert as a late-round sleeper.
Hate
Michael Gallup hasn’t proven to be anything more than JAG (just a guy) in his NFL career. He could have a fine season once he returns, but unless your league has IR spots, I don’t want to have to stash Gallup for potentially multiple weeks as he works his way back from a torn ACL.
I’ve never been in on Dalton Schultz as an elite fantasy option. His TE3 finish a year ago was largely due to volume. We see these pop up every season, and they usually don’t repeat (Austin Hooper says hello).
I actually think Schultz will finish around his TE7 draft slot. But listeners of the show know what Dalton and I say about drafting tight ends: Draft great or draft late. There’s no world where I’m taking Schultz ahead of guys like Allen Robinson, Adam Thielen and Gabriel Davis, which is where he’s going now.
New York Giants, O/U 7.5 wins
Key returners
Daniel Jones, ADP 262 (QB31)
Saquon Barkley, ADP 24 (RB13)
Kenny Golladay, ADP 152 (WR58)
Sterling Shepard, ADP 307 (WR103)
Kadarius Toney, ADP 117 (WR48)
Additions
Wan’Dale Robinson, ADP 255 (WR84)
Ricky Seals-Jones, ADP 323 (TE37)
Daniel Bellinger, ADP 381 (TE45)
Departures
Evan Engram
Devontae Booker
Love
One of Dalton’s training camp storylines on our most recent podcast featured the Giants, and mainly if Brian Daboll could get this offense back on track. Vegas is at least optimistic. The Giants are pegged at 7.5 wins by Vegas, and this is a franchise that hasn’t won more than six games since an 11-5 season in 2016.
As I pointed out in the podcast, one player that Daboll’s offensive creativity makes me excited to draft is Kadarius Toney. The explosion came and went in an instant, but Toney looked like a different level of athlete when he was healthy in back-to-back games against the Saints and Cowboys last year, where he racked up 267 receiving yards in those two games. Toney was often injured, as he played in just 10 games and clearly wasn’t right in at least half of those. He’s a small guy who does a lot with the ball after the catch, but I think that injury risk is pretty clearly priced into his WR48 pricetag. The Giants were reportedly open to trading Toney around the draft, so it’s possible he’s not in the longterm plans of the new regime. But if Toney busts, he’s cheap enough to where it won’t hurt your team much.
Joe Judge and Jason Garrett aren’t exactly offensive geniuses, and I’m excited to see what Daboll can scheme up for Toney. He’s so explosive and allusive after the catch. Good health and good coaching could turn Toney into a fantasy starter this season.
The only guy on this team being drafted as a fantasy starter is Saquon Barkley. It’s been a complicated two years for Barkley, and the only time he’s been a truly elite fantasy option was when he topped 2,000 yards from scrimmage as a rookie.
This is year two for Barkley post ACL tear, and his 2021 season was derailed by multiple injuries. He had 220 yards, three touchdowns and 11 catches in Weeks 3 and 4 before a fluke ankle injury in Week 5.
If Daboll can remake this offense and Barkley can stay healthy, he has a chance to smash his RB13 pricetag. This price is likely near his floor with a healthy season. But what is his ceiling? I still say it’s top 3 overall.
Love is probably a little strong, but I was shocked to see Daniel Jones clear down at QB31. I’d have him about 10 spots higher. If he can be competent this year, there will be multiple players on this offense who will outperform their price tag.
Lukewarm
It’s tough to know what to do with Kenny Golladay. We’ve talked a lot about how Daniel Jones was at fault for Golladay’s poor season because he wasn’t willing to throw into traffic. That’s partially true, but Golladay was straight up bad last season.
He missed most of training camp with an injury and was hampered by injuries most of the season, but he still played 14 games and totaled just 521 yards and zero touchdowns. That’s shockingly bad for a guy who had two 1,000-yard seasons to his name, and it wasn’t all Daniel Jones’ fault.
“It’s hard to mince words here. Golladay’s 2021 Reception Perception is one of the worst among the crop sampled from last season.”
Harmon also points out that the Giants did no favors to Golladay last season. He lined up almost exclusively as an X-receiver, ran downfield routes more than almost any other receiver in the league, ran a slant or a flat just 20% of the time and didn’t run a single screen.
Basically, the Giants didn’t scheme anything easy for Golladay. That should change in 2022, making him worth the gamble even though it’s a massive risk.
Hate
I know we’re already seeing reports that Wan’Dale Robinson is running with the ones. The problem is I just don’t see him as anything more than a gadget player and not as talented as Toney. Toney’s injury concerns mean Robinson will likely get his shot, but I need to see him succeed on the field before caring about him as a fantasy option.
I think the sun has almost set on Sterling Shepard as a yearly waiver wire guy. He’s on the PUP after tearing his Achilles last season, and you have to wonder how many more injuries this guy can go through and still make his way back on the field in a productive role.