Week 4 recap: What in the world do we do about Cordarrelle Patterson?
Patterson wins your week, Ben and the Steelers lose it and much more
In our weekly start/sit stream Sunday morning, Dalton said something that I thought was smart.
“Now is the time of the year where things start to even out,” he said ever so confidently. “Our analysis has more of a trend line to it and there aren’t so many random occurances.”
In a lot of ways, he was right. Tyreek Hill, Patrick Mahomes, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley and D.J. Moore probably won you your week.
But my word, WHAT is going on with Cordarrelle Patterson?!
It was Patterson — not Kyle Pitts or Calvin Ridley — who detonated for the Falcons in Week 4. Patterson had 116 total yards and three touchdowns in a losing effort. He did it on the dump downs and he even caught a long bomb touchdown from Matt Ryan, who was the only quarterback without a completion of 20 air yards or more entering Week 4.
Patterson, the guy who has never been able to be more than a gadget player on offense and special teams star, even went up and snagged a contested-catch for a touchdown.
It’s absolute madness.
Patterson has already surpassed his fantasy point total from 2020. His four receiving touchdowns match his best in any season of his career. He has three straight games of at least five receptions and two in a row with 82 yards receiving.
But I don’t see any way this continues. And I find it highly unlikely he’s a fantasy starter when we look back at this six weeks from now. He’s being used when he’s on the field, but his production combined with his lack of usage isn’t sustainable.
Let’s put it this way: At some point, Dalton and I will do our regression candidates podcast. If that podcast occurred this week, Patterson is the most obvious answer imaginable.
We’re talking about a guy who is 30 years old and has maxed out at 500 total yards of offense in a season throughout his career. He may very well have a career season, but that doesn’t mean you should think of him as a fantasy starter.
If you have him on your team and somebody else values him that way, sell him now.
And now, for the rest of the league.
News
David Montgomery has a knee sprain that is expected to keep him out 4-5 weeks. Damien Williams is now a startable commodity, especially since we still have no clarity on Tarik Cohen. I’m also stashing Khalil Herbert everywhere possible.
Joe Mixon is week-to-week with a low-grade ankle sprain. The phrase “week-to-week” in the same sentence as Joe Mixon is basically nightmare fuel after last season. For what it’s worth, Zac Taylor called him day-to-day hours after the initial report.
On the bright side, it sounds like Tee Higgins is probably playing this week.
Logan Thomas left Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury and zero points. He’s also considered week-to-week.
Week-to-week is the phrase of the week, unfortunately. And of Will Fuller’s career. The Dolphins’ receiver broke his finger Sunday and could miss time.
Teddy Bridgewater is in the league’s concussion protocol and it’s unclear if he plays Week 5. If you need any clarity on why he won the job, go watch Drew Lock’s second half against the Ravens. No crippling mistakes, but a lot of bad quarterback play. Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick and Noah Fant fantasy managers are sending Bridgewater all their good vibes.
It sounds like Jimmy Garoppolo has a chance to play this week after a calf injury sidelined him for the second half in a Week 4 loss to Seattle.
D.J. Chark was placed on the injured reserve Monday according to Urban Meyer, ending his season. That’s the most notable news out of Jacksonville this week, right?
Situation Watch
OK, it’s time to talk about the Steelers.
Yes, JuJu. It absolutely is. Ben Roethlisberger is absolutely cooked. It’s over. The Steelers can only win games in spite of him as long as he’s the starting quarterback. He was wildly inaccurate in the Steelers’ loss to the Packers, including missing JuJu Smith-Schuster down the field multiple times for touchdowns.
But that’s not even the biggest issue. Ben is often unable to do anything but throw the ball to guys in the flat at the line of scrimmage. Facing a fourth down 27-10, Ben threw the ball behind the line of scrimmage and the Steelers actually lost a yard on the play.
At another point in the second half, with the Steelers desperate for points in a hurry, Ben was content to throw it to Najee Harris at the line of scrimmage. How much longer can this continue before the Steelers decide the bench Ben for good? It’s clear his arm is gone, causing him to misfire way too frequently and check down at an irresponsible rate.
Here’s another one where he throws ONE YARD past the line of scrimmage on 4th and 5.
And more importantly, what does this mean for the fantasy football weapons that we care about? The upside is capped for all of them, and they will be widely inconsistent. But they will still have their moments, like Chase Claypool’s two big games before missing Week 4, or Diontae Johnson’s long touchdown reception against the Packers. Najee Harris is the most trustworthy because he’s going to receive the most consistent volume. But with bad quarterback and offensive line play, it’s almost never going to be efficient. Volume and talent will have to win the day.
Smith-Schuster is probably the toughest to reconcile. He showed Sunday that his floor is dangerously low — he had one reception for nine yards — and the slot receiver doesn’t have the weekly upside that the other three weapons do. You don’t have to try hard to find guys you’d rather start over Smith-Schuster. The decision to go back to Pittsburgh over Baltimore or Kansas City looks more confounding by the day.
I hope you added Kenneth Gainwell when he first appeared on the waiver wire column a few weeks ago. The rookie has improved each week in both usage and production through the air with an uptick in receptions (3, 3, 4, 8) and receiving yards (6, 18, 32, 58). And Eagles’ beat reporters seem to think Gainwell will continue to be involved.
Still, last week’s game is probably a little bit of fools gold. The Chiefs may be the worst team in the NFL at defending passes to the flat with their only speedster at linebacker (Willie Gay) sidelined. Combine that with a bad game script for the Eagles, and a productive day for Gainwell is no surprise. But the Eagles also profile as a team that will be playing from behind plenty this season. And at least so far, Gainwell has the edge over Miles Sanders in those situations.
Must Reads
Week 4 takeaways that include some perspective on Patterson and Sam Darnold running for all the touchdowns.
The Cardinals are awesome. And it’s turned out to not be a great thing for DeAndre Hopkins.
Zip around the league with the Footballers.
This is the time of year I start frequently checking trade value charts. Less to figure out the actual numbers each player is assigned and more to get a feel for how some experts feel about the value of certain players rest of the season. Think somebody is way too low on this list? That’s probably a guy you should go trade for because you’re probably higher than the market. CBS always has a good one.
This and That
Presented without comment.
If we work together, we can turn Matt Nagy into the new Adam Gase.
This is why only following the box score isn’t the right way to do this. Mike Williams had a bad day by the numbers, but he crushes it if Justin Herbert hits this.
The Chiefs’ offensive line is mashing folks. It is still worth noting that Darrell Williams only had four fewer carries than Clyde Edwards-Helaire (14-10) and got the goal line touchdown.
This is good data that you’re going to need like 10 minutes to make good sense of.
Alvin Kamara is fresh off his first NFL game without a target. Also, three of his four games with more than 20 carries have been this season. It’s probably past time to have a conversation about his usage.