Week 1 DFS matchups to target
The most extensive Week 1 DFS and betting preview you're going to find anywhere.
The anticipation is over and it’s time for every preconceived notion I’ve had about the NFL to be proved wrong. Last year, in week one Tom Brady threw for 239 yards, two picks, and two interceptions, proving his career was over. This year we get a slew of interesting match-ups for Week 1 of the NFL season.
Bet of the week
New York Jets @ Carolina Panthers O45 Season (0-0-0)
This game has sneaky shootout upside. The Jets released their most veteran starting corner Bless Austin last week and have lost two defensive linemen, including Carl Lawson this off-season. Last year, the Jets were the lowest-scoring offense in the NFL in large part due to Adam Gase’s ineffectual play calling. Robert Saleh and co. look to change that and have a bevy of offensive weapons to help out. Meanwhile, Carolina will have a healthy CMC along with Sam Darnold who graded out evenly with Teddy Bridgewater last season despite substantially worse coaching.
Games to target
New York Jets @ Carolina Panthers (-4.5) O/U 45
Like I said above, this game has sneaky shootout upside, neither defense is particularly good and both offenses have above-average NFL play-callers who are going to maximize talent.
Quarterbacks
Both Sam Darnold and Zach Wilson are priced incredibly low ($5,000). Darnold, behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, probably doesn’t have a huge upside in this game where Carolina should be playing from ahead most of the game. Wilson, however, has sneaky upside. In college, he average just over 20 rushing yards per game and ran for a handful of scores his senior year. If the rookie starts scrambling, he could quickly return value at such a low price point. However, he’s still not going to be the guy winning any lineups.
Wide receivers
The Jets have some interesting low priced options that I think are being deflated, in part, due to Adam Gase’s stink remaining in New York. Corey Davis ($4,900) might be the lowest-priced WR1 in his offense. Holding an insane target rate in the preseason, we know there’s an outstanding connection between Wilson and Davis already, and he could be targeted in a game where the Jets are playing from behind.
Outside of Davis, I’m not interested in the other receiving options unless Jamieson Crowder sits out with his groin injury. Then Elijah Moore ($3,000) is a great punt option for someone who would get full-time slot action if Jamison Crowder doesn’t play. Behind Davis, I expect a lot of early rotation while the coaching staff gets accustomed to its weapons.
The Panthers’ wide receiver situation is a lot harder to figure out. D.J. Moore ($6,100), Robby Anderson ($5,700), and Terrace Marshall ($3,000) are all priced competitively, however, Moore has the most upside in this contest. Last season, Moore’s Average Depth of Target (ADOT) was significantly higher than Anderson’s, and against a broken secondary like the Jets, he should see a lot more opportunities with Darnold, who’s more willing to take shots downfield than his predecessor Bridgewater. Marshall has seen a lot of preseason buzz as the red zone option in this wide receiver core. I wouldn’t recommend spending any money on a rookie who's the third or fourth receiving option in this offense.
Running backs
Tevin Coleman ($4,900), Ty Johnson ($4,400), and Michael Carter ($4,000) all give appealing punt play upside. Even so, I’m avoiding Coleman and Carter in this contest. Coleman has never been a superb NFL talent and likely is getting the start due to his familiarity with Saleh. If that’s the case, he will be the first and second-down back. Carter looks like he’s third on the depth chart and won’t see the field too much. Johnson has been utilized as the pass-catching back and in the third-down role all preseason. He has the most upside in case the Jets have to pass often and early if they fall behind.
Christian McCaffrey ($9,500) is rightfully the most expensive player on the slate. He plays a depleted defensive line and should get roughly 95% of the backfield duties. McCaffrey is the surest bet of 30 points on the slate if you can afford him.
Tight end
Tyler Kroft ($2,500) and Dan Arnold ($2,500) are cheaply priced punt options at tight end. Arnold is interesting in a CMC, Darnold and Arnold stack. Last year, the Jets were the worst at defending tight ends, and Arnold profiles as a pass-catching tight end who could become a red zone target for Darnold, who frequently targeted the position in his time in New York.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) @ Houston Texans -- O/U 44.5
If I were making a list of useful games that I don’t want to write about, this one would be at the top of the list. If you roster any players in this game, do yourself a favor and don’t watch -- even if it comes across RedZone.
But you can still profit.
Quarterbacks
Tyrod Taylor ($5,300) is a player who the community seems to think possesses rushing upside. In his only game last season against a bottom-of-the-league defense, he had six carries for seven yards and passed 208 yards on 30 attempts.
Don’t get cute.
Taylor’s best years are behind him, and the Texans don’t have the supporting cast to change that.
Trevor Lawrence ($6,200) is already being priced like a mid-tier pocket passing quarterback and that has to do entirely with the matchup. While I have no faith in Houston’s defense, relying on a rookie in Week 1 is a dangerous premise if you’re hoping for GPP winning upside. With an O/U of 44.5, the Jaguars will likely lead most of the game, but I’m not betting that’s because of Lawrence. I’m expecting a lot of ugly football.
Running back
Speaking of ugly, James Robinson ($6,400) is not priced like the RB1 he is with Etienne being out for the season. The Texans’ defense does not have the playmakers to keep James Rb1son back. He’s an interesting mid-priced choice against a defense that will give him every opportunity necessary. Carlos Hyde ($4,000) should see his share of work, but I cannot get behind the talent and he’ll need some goal-line runs to hit value.
Phillip Lindsay ($4,700) and David Johnson ($5,700) look to split work. The Jaguars have a porous run defense, but with neither player getting a significant share of projected work, I’d avoid rostering them in a game where the Texans could make a bad defense look salvageable.
Wide Receivers
Brandin Cooks ($5,300) is the only interesting option for the Texans. Last year, Taylor gave Keenan Allen a measly 4/37/0 stat line in Week 1 against a poor defense. I have no expectation that Cooks can overcome poor QB play in this matchup and wouldn’t roster him. Nico Collins ($3,600) isn’t a viable option.
D.J. Chark ($5,800), Laviska Shenault ($5,000), and Marvin Jones ($3,800) all have week-winning upside thanks to a poor Houston defense. Even so, Chark is a player I’m not targeting just yet. Coming off of finger surgery and an off-season of poor comments from his coaching staff, Chark is a player I need to see perform before I believe it. Shenault looks to have a low aDOT role again this year and gives a safe floor with a clear-cut path to targets from Lawrence. Jones, however, is way too underpriced. He needs one bad defensive miscue to win your week, and I expect plenty of opportunities. Jones will likely be one of my higher owned cheap options.
Tight end
Chris Manhertz ($2,700) and Jordan Akins ($3,000) aren’t worth consideration. There are contrarian plays and there’s being wrong and this is the ladder.
Arizona Cardinals @ Tennessee Titans (-2.5) O/U 52.5
What do we want? Bad defenses with great offenses. This game has game of the week potential. This game will probably hold some of the highest percent of rostered players and bettors are hammering the over with it moving two points since last week.
Quarterbacks
Kyler Murray ($7,600) is the second highest-priced quarterback on the Sunday slate. Fully recovered from the shoulder injury he sustained last season, I expect Murray to return to his overall QB1 form where he averaged at least 27 fantasy points a game. The Titans have a bad defense on paper, and Murray should have plenty of opportunities to return value at his cost.
Ryan Tannehill ($6,500) unfortunately already has a lot of upside priced in as the QB8 on the slate but, we don’t know what the addition of Julio Jones could mean for Tannehill’s upside. He’s a contrarian play to the over-rostering of Murray and is a guy I want in some of my lineups.
Wide Receivers
DeAndre Hopkins ($7,800) is rightly the fourth highest-priced option on the slate. He should abuse a suspect Titans defense. Rondale Moore ($3,000) is an interesting low priced option. Moore saw a lot of work in two-receiver sets in the preseason and is a guy Kingsbury wanted to use. If you’re looking for a bring-back option with the more expensive players, Moore could be it. A.J. Green ($3,800) is a player I cannot and will not get behind.
I will not roster him -- even if there’s a fire.
Christian Kirk ($4,500) seems overpriced considering the additions to this WR room.
AJ Brown ($7,100) and Jones ($6,800) pair together as one of the most difficult WR duos to cover in the NFL and the Cardinals cornerbacks just don’t have it. Thanks to Mike Vrabel’s insistence on living in the 1950s and running the ball as much as possible, these two are players that I won’t roster together. I’m willing to bet a healthy Julio is a better value at a cheaper option. Josh Reynolds ($3,400) won’t see the field enough to be a meaningful addition to any roster.
Running backs
Derrick Henry ($8,800) is a clear fade for me at cost. The Cardinals ran cover zero the most in the NFL last season and could sell out early to stop the run. If this game gets out of hand quickly Henry could see himself on the bench while the Titans are in clear passing situations.
Chase Edmonds ($4,800) and James Conner ($4,500) aren’t appealing options.
Tight Ends
Maxx Williams ($2,700) is not worth rostering in a crowded pass-catcher room. Anthony “the firk-daddy” Firkser ($3,200) is an intriguing option. Last year, Firkser was third in targets per route run among tight ends and figures to be the third receiving option in the Titan’s offense. If this game turns to a shootout he could be on the field a lot.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) O/U 47.5
Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts ($6,400) looks like a potential value on the slate. Hurts was able to hit the 300 passing yard mark twice in four games last year and possesses obvious rushing upside.
Matt Ryan ($6,000) historically hasn’t played well without Julio Jones (around 45 fewer yards a game) but plays against an Eagles defense without any playmakers. With an O/U of 47.5 and Arthur Smith’s red zone prowess, Ryan looks like a below-priced option with a high-end outcome probable.
Wide receiver
Calvin Ridley ($7,900) might be at the lowest price he’ll be all season. Clearly, the best receiving option on the Falcons, Ridley’s deep aDOT and likely ludacris target share lend themselves to a week-winning receiver performance. Russell Gage ($5,300) is an average NFL talent who doesn’t possess much upside as the third or fourth receiving option in this offense and is likely overpriced.
Devonta Smith ($4,500) has the clearest path to a Week 1 rookie breakout. The Falcons’ cornerback situation did not improve and was the 32nd ranked unit in allowing points to wide receivers last season. Jalen Reagor ($3,700) has played himself down the depth chart and might not see himself on the field in 2WR sets. Quez Watkins ($3,000) meanwhile, has played himself in the WR2 competition and is an intriguing punt play option in a game that should feature a lot of points.
Tight end
This game likely has the most valuable tight ends on the slate. Between Zach Ertz ($3,800) and Dallas Goedert ($4,800) I prefer Ertz, whose price is questionable and likely was made at a time when we expected him to be traded. Goedert is overpriced and likely won’t see enough opportunities to hit on value.
Kyle Pitts ($4,400) is a clear steal as the 8th highest priced tight end on the slate. He figures to be Ryans’ second option in the passing game. Last year, Arthur Smiths’ Titan offense threw the fourth-most red zone passes to the tight end position. Hayden Hurst ($3,700) is a player who will still see a lot of time on the field but is too expensive to consider in lineups.
San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) @ Detroit Lions O/U 45.5
With Vegas setting the 49ers as the clear-cut aggressor in this matchup I believe this game could possess some major contrarian value.
Quarterback
Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,500) will likely take a back seat to his run game all day. While the Lions’ passing defense is suspect at best I don’t think the volume is here for Garoppolo to be a must-start. There’s also the off chance we get a Trey Lance package, which would further hinder Garapoolo.
Jared Goff ($5,100) is priced near the bottom of starting quarterbacks and for good reason. Even in a game where the Lions will be playing from behind, I don’t have faith that Goff has the weapons or the coaching to put up points
Wide receiver
Brandon Aiyuk ($5,700) is an interesting mid-priced play. Last year, the Lions were in the bottom half of the league in missed tackles in their secondary. Aiyuk is a YAC stud and could accumulate points even on limited volume. Like Aiyuk, Samuel ($5,900) should see enough chances to create points, but as the higher-priced player in a low pass offense, I prefer the cheaper Aiyuk.
Amron St. Brown ($3,000) is a fine punt play. The Lions should be playing from behind enough that the passes will come his way while Jared Goff targets the slot at an above-average rate. Tyrell Williams ($4,400) is a player not worth rostering, Goff’s deep ball accuracy has fallen year over year, and I don’t trust him as anything more than a downfield threat.
Running back
I do not think you can go wrong in this game between Raheem Mostert ($5,800), Trey Sermon ($4,500) and JaMychal Hasty ($4,000). With that being said, Sermon has the best price point, plus opportunities. Mostert and Sermon look to be two of the higher owned mid-priced backs.
I have not had nice things to say about Deandre Swift ($6,900) all offseason, and as the ninth highest-priced running back for the slate, I don’t really think he’s a value. This is a game the Lions will need their passing down back frequently and is an interesting comeback option if you stack the Niners. Jamal Williams ($4,500) likely will struggle to find work as the game gets out of hand.
Tight end
George Kittle ($6,300) is too over-priced in a matchup where I can’t see the Niners passing often but is an interesting pivot if you think the Lions make the game competitive (lol).
T.J. Hockenson ($4,900) is equally overpriced. Goff has never shown a tendency to target his tight ends, but will likely have to without many other receiving options. Hock sill has little touchdown upside in this game
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) @ Indianapolis Colts -- O/U48.5
Quarterback
Russell Wilson ($7,000) is my favorite dark horse to lead the slate. Yes, the Colts have a good defense, but last year in the first half of the season, only Kyler Murray averaged more points per game than Wilson, who will be my most rostered quarterback on the slate.
Carson Wentz ($5,600) is not a mid-tier quarterback worth roster consideration. Last year, the Colts opted to run the ball instead of passing as much as possible. I think that trend continues into Week 1.
Running back
Chris Carson ($5,900) might be the cheapest workhorse running back on the slate. Last year, Carson posted multiple top 10 performances, and this should be a week he has multiple pathways to relevance.
Jonathan Taylor ($8,000) is too expensive in a contest where the Colts could fall behind early. Taylor was significantly out-snapped by Nyheim Hines ($5,000) when the Colts faced deficits of at least seven points.
Wide receiver
The injury to T.Y. Hilton has opened up some serious value in Indy. Michael Pittman ($4,100) has been a popular sleeper pick all offseason and offers high upside in a game where Wentz should be passing often. Last year, Pittman wasn’t great when targeted frequently, but with an Alshon Jeffery style of play, we could see shades of 2018 with this combo. Paris Campbell ($3,700) is my favorite to lead this group in catches in Week 1. Campbell had ten total touches in Week 1 last year, and his athleticism should shine as long as he stays on the field.
D.K. Metcalf ($7,500) is rightfully the 7th highest-priced player on the slate. With an improved offense and a faster pace of play, he should see plenty of chances to score. Unlike in redraft, Tyler Lockett ($6,700) is also priced to his talent and upside. Shane Waldron’s horizontal offense should benefit Lockett substantially and he’s my preference this week. Simply put: You can’t go wrong with either. D’Wayne Eskridge ($3,000) is an interesting punt if you want a QB/WR/WR stack with the Seahawks.
Tight end
Gerald Everett ($3,400) is a cheaper option at tight end that should see plenty of scoring opportunities. Mo Alie-Cox ($2,900) is likely the only tight end worth consideration on the Colt. His large frame and ability to catch contested balls give him a clear path to touchdowns.
Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals — O/U 47.5
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins ($6,300) is the ninth highest-priced quarterback on the slate and posted 13 QB1 weeks last year. Cousins possesses a safe floor against a Bengals defense that lost their best player Carl Lawson to the Jets in the offseason.
Joe Burrow ($5,700) is a player to avoid in Week 1. Before his catastrophic knee injury last year, Burrow posted a 3.1% touchdown rate, which is well below league average. With his continued hesitance to rely on his knee this in training camp, Burrow is a player I want to watch before I trust him. It doesn’t help that Everson Griffin will be lining up opposite of him all game.
Running back
Dalvin Cook ($9,100) is an interesting pivot from the high ownership CMC will likely receive. In a game where Minnesota is favored, Cook is a favorite to have 25+ touches in Week 1.
Joe Mixon ($6,200) is a polarizing player. If he gets the receiving work he’s been promised with the departure of Gio Bernard, then he has a relatively easy path to hitting on value. But he’s running behind a porous line. Mixon is a player I’ll mix in often with his low price point.
Wide receiver
Justin Jefferson ($7,700) is playing against one of the worst secondaries in football in 2020. The only concern about his value is how quickly the Vikings get ahead and use their running game. I prefer Ridley, Diggs, and Jones at this price point. Adam Thielen ($7,000) is incredibly expensive and reliant on touchdowns entering his age 31 season. I’m avoiding him in favor of cheaper options in this offense.
Tyler Boyd ($5,200), Tee Higgins ($4,700), and Ja’Marr Chase ($4,800) are all similarly priced and have intriguing upside. Higgins is my favorite to target, he’s the cheapest and has an established rapport with Burrow. If I’m avoiding any player, it’s Chase, who’s nearly two full years removed from playing football and could have a cold start to his career.
Tight end
Tyler Conklin ($2,900) is priced like Irv Smith is still healthy and playing. While Conklin is not an exciting option, he possesses redzone upside and should be the go-to in the tight end game. C.J. Uzomaoh ($2,900) doesn’t possess a lot of upside in an offense that runs three-receiver sets often and will need blocking help for their offensive line issues.
Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) O/U 52.5
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes ($8,100) is rightly the highest-priced QB on the slate and plays in the game with the most implied points. Mahomes is playing behind a revamped offensive line and fully healthy off of toe surgery. He is as sure a thing as possible at quarterbacks His ability to go off for 30+ points should place him in at least some lineups you make.
Baker Mayfield ($5,900) is priced by DraftKings like he’s not playing in the highest-scoring game. Despite additions to the defensive line, Kansas City should struggle to pressure Mayfield most of the game. Playing against Mahomes means Mayfield will have to pass often and is a good pivot for Mahomes’ high ownership.
Running back
Nick Chubb ($7,200) is overpriced in a game where he could quickly be game-scripted out. Kareem Hunt ($5,500) is a player that could quickly hit value if Kansas City jumps out to a quick lead and is a good comeback option if you stack KC.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6,600) is a player whose upside is priced in already and someone I’m avoiding in favor of cheaper options with similar upside like James Robinson and Chris Carson.
Wide receiver
Tyreek Hill ($8,200) will be difficult to afford in a pairing with Mahomes. But with his upside, he is another player I want as much exposure to as I can afford. Cleveland’s addition of Troy Hill helps their secondary, but Hill’s game-breaking ability is a sure-fire path to GPP winning upside. Mecole Hardman ($4,800) is an interesting cheaper option. If Hardman starts in two receiver sets, he should have substantial upside.
Jarvis Landry ($6,000) is too expensive to justify in lineups even in a high-scoring game. Odell Beckham Jr. ($5,400) is much more intriguing and should be Mayfield’s prime target all game. Donovan Peoples-Jones ($3,000) is an interesting punt play and should be the prime wide receiver running deep for Mayfield.
Tight end
Travis Kelce ($8,300) is tied with Davante Adams for the most expensive receiving option on the slate. With such a high implied point total he’s still worth roster consideration, especially with so much value on the cheaper options this week to help build out your roster.
Austin Hooper ($4,000) is a little overpriced to be a consideration in a Browns offense that will likely consolidate passes to its WR’s and RB’s.