Underdog season is here (for the sickos) and I am more than ready to start drafting. It’s early, and a ton of teams have rookie fever, so there is value amok in drafts right now. After seeing Braelon Allen go in round 14 and Marshawn Lloyd in round 13, I’m happy to report that J.K. Dobbins truthers are free to take him in round 17. Check out the draft below on my thoughts player-by-player, but here’s the board.
(Editor’s note: Dalton is indeed a sicko. It’s April, folks.)
1.07 - Bijan Robinson
Robinson’s rookie season was a major disappointment, but most of the blame lies with his former head coach Arthur Smith whose deployment of Robinson was criminal at times. Under Smith, Bijan finished 19th in carries, 31st in opportunity share, and 32nd in redzone touches among running backs. If you need a reminder, here’s five minutes of Arthur Smith trying to talk his way out of not using Bijan in the red zone. Throw in an offensive overhaul and Kirk Cousins, and I expect a much fantasy-friendlier outcome in 2024.
2.08 - Brandon Aiyuk
Trade rumors be damned, I'll take as much Aiyuk as I can. After posting a 75/1342/7 season last year, Aiyuk is primed to continue to be a fantasy stud. After making major improvements to the offensive line in the draft (see more below on Purdy), I expect San Francisco's offense to continue to roll. PFF graded Aiyuk out with a 92.3 last season, and there’s still room for more targets depending on how this offense plays out in 2024.
3.07 - Michael Pittman
The Colts will be a fun offense in 2024, and Michael Pittman should be the number one beneficiary of the Anthony Richardson-led offense. After signing a 3-year, $70 million contract, Pittman should be the first read in an RPO-heavy offense targeting the intermediate routes. Last year, Pittman was fourth in the NFL in catches at 104, but 41st in touchdowns. I expect an increase in scoring in Indy with a full season of Richardson.
4.08 - Tee Higgins
Tee Higgins is a glaring value in Underdog drafts this year. An injury-laden season for the Bengals has tanked the value of all their players excluding Ja’Marr Case, and I’m buying. Tee had drop issues early on in the season but showed spurts of what made him a second-round pick last year. Just watch his tape against the Vikings last year with Jake Browning manning the Quarterback spot.
5.07 - Diontae Johnson
Diontae Johnson’s ESPN open score over the last five seasons ranked:
2023: 12th-best
2022: best
2021: 4th-best
2020: 3rd-best
2019: 2nd-best
He now goes to an offense that let a creeky Adam Thielen post a 103/1014/4 season. Meanwhile, Carolina added David Canales, who has led multiple offensive resurgences across the league. I won’t pencil Johnson in for 150+ targets in 2024, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it happen.
6.08 - Joe Burrow
Joe Burrows ADP is probably going to rise over the summer, so I’m getting my shares while I can. We’ve forgotten that in July of last year, Burrow’s calf injury was so bad he had to be carted off the field at training camp. Burrow could hardly use his plant foot in the first four weeks of the NFL season, and the Bengals offense struggled mightily. A few weeks later, Burrow injured his hand to cap off a lost season. The Bengals added weapons for Burrow in free agency and the draft, and they beefed up their offensive line with massive units Duane Brown and Amarius Mims. Joe Burrow’s ceiling is QB1, and he is the cheapest of the group with that upside.
7.07 - David Montgomery
Montgomery was 10th among running backs in fantasy points per game; it's not hard to take a stellar offense's red zone back in the seventh round. Last year, Gibbs’ lone carry inside the five was when Montgomery willingly took himself out of the game to let Gibbs run it in. This offense can carry two productive fantasy backs, and Montgomery is far from dust.
8.08 - Brock Purdy
San Francisco targeted Wr (2) IOL (2) and RB (1) in the draft in an attempt to add to its already stout offense. Throughout the season and the playoffs, Brock Purdy showed he was more than ready to get the ball to his weapons surging to a QB6 finish. Dominic Puni should beef up the right side of their line to give Purdy more time in the pocket.
9.07 - Zach Moss
Last year, the Bengals were second in the NFL in runs from shotgun (188), which accounted for 59% of their runs. Zach Moss was second in the NFL in yards per carry behind only Jonathan Taylor. The Bengals’ offensive line has gotten even stronger.
10.08 - Tyjae Spears
I don’t have much faith in the Tony Pollard experiment in Tennessee. Since Derrick Henry began his career for the Titans, only one running back has been able to take meaningful snaps from Henry and it was Tyjae Spears. The additions of offensive tackle JC Latham and offensive line guru Bill Callahan give me hope that Spears will quickly outpace his 2023 season production and his current draft position.
11.07 - Kirk Cousins
Even with the ghost of Micahel Penix looming, the upside for Kirk Cousins is sky-high. Before his injury last season, Cousins was pacing the league in yards and touchdowns. While he loses Justin Jefferson, the additions of Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Darnell Mooney should warrant low-end starter production at worst this season for Cousins.
12.08 - Dontayvion Wicks
It’s going to be a game of whack-a-mole all offseason with the Green Bay Packers wide receiver. Last year, PFF graded Wicks as the best of the group. Aside from oft-injured Christian Watson, Wicks is currently my favorite bet at cost in drafts. If I were to bet on who will be the odd man out, I’d guess that Romeo Doubs has the worst fantasy outcome of the group.
13.07 - Darnell Mooney
Last year, Darnell Mooney had a catchable deep target rate of 49%. Chicago’s passing game was a mess the entire year. With defenses gravitating to Atlanta’s big three, I like the explosive play upside the Mooney offers with Kirk Cousins, who PFF graded as a top 10 deep passer last year.
14.08 - Jermaine Burton
It took 14 rounds, but I finally hit rookie gold. The WR3 role in Cincinnati with Burrow has always been productive with Tyler Boyd. Burton can play all three levels and several scouts had him as a round 1 talent, but due to his childish actions in the Tennessee game and other off-field issues, Burton fell in the draft.
15.07 - Jonnu Smith
Speed matters in Miami and last year Smith was clocked as the fastest tight end in the NFL. I punted on tight end in the draft, so I’m betting on an offense that’s creative and should see a lot of red zone work.
16.08 - Noah Fant
I still believe in Noah Fant as a first-round talent. He lost a large number of snaps last year to Will Dissly’s blocking ability and the woes on the offensive line for Seattle. Ryan Grubbs’ offensive experiment will be interesting to see in the NFL, but I expect Fant to have availability in the short game.
17.07 - J.K. Dobbins
This is simply the most talented player going past round 14. Dobbins has an injury history to be sure, but he has reunited with former offensive coordinator Greg Roman. The line for Los Angeles looks intimidating, and we are all sure that the run game will be a priority in L.A., so I’m willing to bet Dobbins sees his share of work. Kimani Vidal is exciting, but even at his best, he is not as good as Dobbins.
18.08 - Ja’Tavion Sanders
I punted on tight end and wanted Ben Sinnott here, but he went a few picks earlier. Sanders has work to do, but like I said earlier, I’m excited about what Dave Canales brings to Carolina and will take my shots.
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