Rookie receivers with 100-target upside
These five rookie receivers have the potential to vastly outperform their draft position and be impact players in fantasy football
One of the most common ways to find players whose performance exceeds their fantasy football draft position is to hit on a rookie who people had little to no expectations for that season.
Take last year as an example.
It was a loaded class at the top with Ja’Marr Chase, Kyle Pitts, Jaylen Waddle and Devonta Smith, and that top-end production is not common. But there are usually a few rookies who top 100 targets each season.
If any of this year’s rookies hit that number, they likely outperform their current draft position. And that’s why we’re on a mission to identify the five most likely rookies to break 100 targets in 2022.
*Note: All ADP courtesy of Underdog as of 7/2/22.
Drake London, WR35
London is both the most likely candidate to reach 100 targets and most likely to have a 2021 Najee Harris type of season. Not from a raw production standpoint, but rather because he’s very likely to end up with a lot of volume but struggle in the efficiency department due to his situation.
Podcast listeners know how much I love London. He was my number one prospect ahead of the NFL draft, and I think he has the potential to be one of the 10 best receivers in the NFL. London is known for his physicality and his route running chops, and that combination should lead to minimal adjustment for the rookie.
And he landed in a situation where he is clearly the second most talented pass-catcher on the team. Cordarrelle Patterson is still around and will command volume as both a receiver and a runner, but I don’t believe last year is close to repeatable for him. Kyle Pitts is the most talented player on this offense and will see the most volume, but London is firmly second in line.
Whether it’s Marcus Mariota or Desmond Ridder, the quarterback situation looks grim for London in his first year. The volume might not always be quality, but London’s ability to win at the point of attack and pull down contested catches will make him an immediate favorite for a pair of bad quarterbacks.
As long as London stays relatively healthy, I’d be pretty surprised if he doesn’t reach 100 targets.
Chris Olave, WR48
This one might come as a bit of a surprise to some just looking at the Saints roster. Michael Thomas is still around (we think), Jarvis Landry will command volume, and Alvin Kamara will get his through the air. Oh, and the Saints were 27th in passing attempts and dead last in passing yards last season.
This one is going to need some context.
In the seven games that Jameis Winston played, he threw for just 1,170 yards and it seemed like the Saints were doing everything in their power to not lose the game on offense. But let’s remember who he was throwing to. Kamara led the team with 47 receptions despite playing just 13 games, and Marquez Callaway and Deonte Harris were the two leading receivers, and neither of those guys topped 700 yards. Thomas, of course, never stepped on the field in 2021.
Winston won’t have the volume he did in Tampa Bay, but it’s reasonable to expect the Saints to be closer to league average in passing numbers with Winston at quarterback with improved receivers. That should be enough to support multiple good fantasy wide receivers.
And that’s all without mentioning how freaking good Olave is. He’s already shown flashes of brilliance in rookie camp. Thomas and Landry being around will help Olave in the long term, as he gets to learn from some of the best route runners in the league. And while their presence could hurt Olave’s volume to some degree, it will also give him a chance to go up against No. 2 and 3 cornerbacks most weeks. Those are matchups where a refined route runner like Olave should feast.
Olave can play all three receiver positions and is the technician of this class. Even if Thomas starts the season on the sideline, Olave is talented enough to play the primary role in an offense from day one.
Treylon Burks, WR41
Look, there is absolutely nothing positive happening with Treylon Burks right now. He was in and out of practice at rookie minicamp as he dealt with asthma issues and didn’t practice in either of the two sessions of mandatory minicamp that were open to reporters for unspecified reasons. And that doesn’t even get into the concerns which cropped up at the combine where Burks was clearly out of shape.
Burks addressed his conditioning last month.
“It differs every now and then, but I’m just taking it one day at a time and just playing ball,” Burks said Wednesday when asked about his conditioning level.
Asked about not being able to get through all drills at this point, Burks said “everything isn’t perfect.”
“I don’t really worry about them at all,” Burks said about dealing with setbacks. “Everyone is going to have setbacks. It’s just how you come back and attack it and keep going.”
— Ben Arthur, Nashville Tennessean
Here’s the thing: I’m not going to let these types of concerns from May and June scare me off of Burks. Let's circle back on these storylines in August.
But for now, let’s focus on this: The opportunity is clearly there for Burks to command massive volume after the Titans traded A.J. Brown and didn’t bring back Julio Jones. The only other receiver of note they brought in was Robert Woods, who is 30 and coming off a torn ACL he suffered midseason. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, who put up 476 yards and four touchdowns, is the leading returning receiver from last year’s group. Nobody else from last year who is still on the roster had more than 350 yards receiving.
While Burks was not my favorite prospect pre-draft, he is a physical specimen, and the Titans would be wise to scheme the ball his way in every drag route, tunnel screen and jet sweep they have in their playbook. He’s probably the most talented pass-catcher on the team, so I think they will do just that. And he will make enough plays down the field to command targets.
Christian Watson, WR53
The Packers still haven’t signed another veteran receiver, making Allen Lazard, Sammy Watkins and Randall Cobb the main competition for Watson in this offense. All of those guys are capable players, but you’d be hard-pressed to say any of them are capable of blow-up seasons. Watson is a physical freak with all the tools to be a very good NFL wide receiver. And he has one of the best quarterbacks of all time throwing him the football.
This pick may be the biggest risk-reward of them all. The jump in competition is going to be bigger for Watson than most rookies since he spent his collegiate days at FCS powerhouse North Dakota State. It’s possible he’s just not ready to contribute in year one and struggles to do the things necessary to gain Aaron Rodgers’ trust and the trust of the coaching staff.
It’s also possible that Watson is the best rookie receiver this season. He’s very clearly the most talented receiver on his team, and being the wide receiver one for Rodgers is a profitable business.
This quote from the Packers offensive coordinator basically sums it up. The talent and athletic profile are undeniable. A 100 target season is very much in the range of outcomes if he figures out the rest quickly enough.
Garrett Wilson, WR51
It came down to Garrett Wilson and Skyy Moore for the last spot. If the list went to six, Moore would be there, and he could certainly earn 100 targets. Moore is more of a patience play in dynasty and likely to have efficient boom weeks but inconsistent volume. I have an easier time seeing Wilson carving out that volume in his rookie season.
Corey Davis could lose the primary outside receiver role to Wilson, who I think is the most talented receiver on a team that already has a talented young receiver in Elijah Moore. Yes, I have many, many questions about Zach Wilson and whether he can truly provide 100 targets to any receiver. Both Michael Carter and Moore were better with Zach Wilson on the bench last year.
But let’s make this about Garrett Wilson and the talent he possesses. He is one of the most elusive receivers in his class, has elite speed and is capable of jaw-dropping highlight-reel plays.
If he becomes a more consistent and refined receiver, Wilson has all the physical tools to become a number one receiver in the NFL. I know on paper the situation isn’t great. Elijah Moore is really good, Corey Davis is adequate, and this could be a run-heavy team with both Carter and Breece Hall in the fold.
But Garrett Wilson needs to be included on this list. What if we’re wrong about his situation? What if Zach Wilson makes huge strides in year two? What if the Jets are actually a decent team that can support multiple fantasy-relevant receivers?
While those things aren’t likely, we at least have to entertain the possibility. The NFL changes so much year to year that we’re wrong about how good so many teams are going to be. And if the Jets end up being decent, Garrett Wilson has the raw tools to command 100 targets as a rookie.