My guys for the fantasy football season
All in on Lamar plus one RB you can trust in the RB dead zone
Well, it’s been a while.
Our most recent podcast episode was a big one. Dalton and I each pick four guys we love for fantasy football this year and declare them one of, “my guys.” I know, I know. It’s a very creative name.
This year, I couldn’t just narrow it down to four guys. So, in addition to the four I unveiled on episode 42 of the podcast, here are four additional guys I love for the upcoming season.
Tyler Lockett (ADP: WR20. My rank: WR15.)
This is a full-circle moment for Tyler Lockett and me. I loved him before last season. And if you look at nothing but the result, he delivered for his fantasy managers to the tune of a WR9 finish. But the ride was anything but smooth. Lockett failed to break single-digits 10 times last season. And in those 10 games, he only topped eight points twice.
To put it simply: when he was bad, he was really bad. Despite the inconsistent production, he was still consistently good as a player in 2020.
However, as we discussed on a pod earlier this summer, I believe new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron and his new scheme will breathe new life into the Seattle passing attack. Most importantly, the changes should bring some consistency to an offense that was held to 20 or fewer points five times last season.
The Seahawks’ plan A, B and C last season was to throw it deep. When teams finally sold out to stop that, they amazingly had no counter. Waldron brings a scheme that is going to implement some semblance of a horizontal passing attack and may finally bring some more tempo to the offense.
It’s never a bad year to have Russell Wilson throwing the ball to one of your fantasy receivers. And I’d argue this could be the best fantasy season for the passing offense with Wilson leading the way. I’m buying the dip in Lockett’s ADP after a maddening 2020.
Lamar Jackson (ADP: QB4. My rank: QB2.)
It felt like the Ravens were lost in the wilderness much of last season. The offense we grew to love in 2019 was nowhere to be found in 2020. Sure, they were still producing fantasy-relevant guys and winning some games. But it was a far cry from the historic 2019 run.
I’m not saying the 2021 Ravens are going to be the 2019 Ravens. In fact, we’re already off to an ominous start with all the wide receiver injuries the team has suffered in camp. But I do think we saw the floor for Lamar Jackson last year.
Jackson finished the season as QB10. But when the team finally got its act together down the stretch, Jackson exploded and produced like the elite guy he was drafted to be, as he was the QB2 (just one point behind Josh Allen) in weeks 13-17 and averaged 27.7 points per game in that stretch.
It was easy to predict the efficiency drop in the passing game for the Ravens last year. Even if Lamar had an efficient season, he probably wasn’t going to replicate an insane 9% touchdown percentage from 2019 and top 3,000 yards at his low passing volume (relative to other quarterbacks at least). Oh, and he was only at 1,005 rushing yards. He was over 1,200 his MVP season and can certainly best his 2020 total in 2021.
Jackson himself didn’t perform as he should have as a passer. But his weapons were sparse. And two best guys, Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews, made a lot of knucklehead mistakes.
Both of them can be better this year. Sammy Watkins will be an upgrade over the others they had last season when he’s healthy. And Rashod Bateman will be a factor at some point.
This isn’t meant as a jab at Josh Allen, but I think it’s possible we saw his career-best season last year. And Kyler Murray is a lesser version of Jackson in my eyes.
I still see Jackson as the superior fantasy option to either of the two guys going ahead of him and the only guy who can push Patrick Mahomes for QB1. I’m not a guy who typically drafts quarterbacks early, so I’m not going to take Jackson where the typical QB2 lands in drafts. But he should be the second quarterback off the board in all drafts.
Kareem Hunt (ADP: RB21. My rank RB:19.)
The difference between ADP and my rank of Kareem Hunt is pretty inconsequential. But the point of this is to give you all one freaking running back that you can feel comfortable taking after the top 16-18 guys.
If you go back and listen to our busts show, a prevailing theme among Dalton and me is we are avoiding taking running backs in rounds 4-6 in favor of receivers if at all possible. It’s been coined the running back dead zone by many, and that’s because you can make a legitimate case for about every guy in that range to bust and kill your team.
But if we’re all telling you to avoid running backs in that range, there’s a pretty good chance your league mates have heard the same advice. So, even if you go into your draft dead set against taking a running back in the mid-rounds, the board may just fall that way.
And Hunt can be there to save you if it does.
He may not live up to RB19 if Chubb plays the whole year, but has a great shot to finish there. And he’s not going to flame out and kill your team.
If Chubb were to miss time, we all know the upside Hunt has. He’s a locked and loaded top 10 guy every week in that scenario, and that has to be baked into his rank. I don’t think it’s unfair to say he underperformed a bit when Chubb was out last year, but he was still the RB8 in those four weeks. He would probably be that on most other teams in the league and is a better and more player than anybody else in this range.
Hunt has proven he can be productive with Chubb, too. In fact, he was often the guy the Browns turned to in fourth quarters to put games away. In weeks 1-4, when both guys played, Chubb was the RB12 and Hunt the RB7. Chubb was one of the best backs in football and the RB5 in weeks 10-17 when he returned from the knee injury. Hunt still helped your team and was RB20 in that same stretch.
Even if the rushing numbers and total touchdowns (11) fall off a bit for Hunt in 2021, you can make the argument that he’s due for a bounce-back season as a receiver. He only had 38 receptions in 16 games last season, which was one more than he had in eight games with the Browns in 2019.
A bust-proof running back in this range is a very valuable thing. I think that’s what you’re getting with Kareem Hunt in 2021.
Irv Smith Jr. (ADP: TE14. My rank TE9.)
As Dalton and I talked about last week, we both are in favor of either taking a tight end extremely early or waiting until the very end of drafts. And if you’re waiting until the end of your draft, Irv Smith Jr. is my favorite target.
Many people cover fantasy football who are much smarter than me and have more time to watch the film. Brett Kollmann is certainly one of those guys, and he recently noted that Smith has great chemistry with Kirk Cousins. Smith, in Kollmann’s estimation, is great at finding voids in zone coverage. Many think of Smith as just a big fast guy at tight end, but he’s probably more crafty and smart than he’s given credit for.
With that being true, he’s going to see a lot of volume from Cousins. Heck, if Thielen loses a step this year, Smith could very well turn into Cousins’ security blanket. I know drafting Smith is projecting him to do something he’s never done statistically, as he’s never even topped 400 yards receiving.
But this is the first year Smith will assume the starting role full-time, and I’m comfortable enough in his talent to predict a breakout season.
Although it’s his third season, Smith just celebrated his 23rd birthday this month and is two months younger than rookie Pat Freiermuth. If it’s clear early on that it isn’t going to work out, you can cut him and try another tight end from waivers.
Even with very low volume last year, Smith still scored five touchdowns. He was also a guy I wanted to hear positive stuff about out of training camp, and one of the top Vikings storylines has been his budding chemistry with Cousins, especially in the red zone.
So, I’m sorry, but I believe Mike Zimmer saying Smith’s role won’t be any bigger in 2021 was an old-fashioned football coach trying to motivate his guy.