Fantasy Football Team Previews: Jaguars and Texans
Is Brandin Cooks underrated? What is Travis Etienne's upside?
With fantasy football draft season right around the corner, we are previewing every team and fantasy-relevant player. The players are broken up into three categories: love, hate, and lukewarm. Today’s teams: Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars.
We’re getting the fun ones out of the way to start this series off!
Average draft position (ADP) is evolving daily. The ADP listed for each player is as of the day of publication for each newsletter. All ADP is courtesy of FantasyPros.
Note: All win total lines are courtesy of FanDuel.
Houston Texans, O/U 4.5 wins
Key returners
Brandin Cooks, ADP 64 (WR25)
Davis Mills, ADP 231 (QB28)
Brevin Jordan, ADP 253 (TE27)
Nico Collins, ADP 274 (WR91)
Additions
John Metchie, ADP 245 (WR81)
Dameon Pierce, ADP 132 (RB47)
Marlon Mack, ADP 143 (RB50)
Departures
Phillip Lindsay
David Johnson
Mark Ingram
Love
This section is reserved for Brandin Cooks and Brandin Cooks alone. The veteran receiver made the most of a terrible situation last year, as he finished as the WR17 on the season and has six 1,000-yard seasons to his name. Cooks probably doesn’t have the upside to be a top 10 guy unless his situation improves dramatically, which is part of why his ADP is what it is.
But if I were a betting man, I’d bet on Cooks finishing above the WR25 if he has a healthy season.
Lukewarm
Dameon Pierce is probably the only other Texan I’m interested in drafting. I love him at his price but his ceiling is probably capped as a guy who can get on the flex radar.
Davis Mills was the QB12 from Weeks 13-18 last season. Mills wasn’t great last year, but he ended the year strong and had a better year than the number one pick in his draft class. He’s not somebody you should be drafting, but it’s very plausable he’s a viable streamer later in the season.
Hate
The rest of these guys should not even be in consideration for fantasy managers on draft day. The two names to keep an eye on are Brevin Jordan and John Metchie. Jordan is a talented young tight end and could work himself into the streaming conversation at some point this year.
Metchie, on the other hand, will likely miss some time with a torn ACL that he suffered late in his final season at Alabama. Metchie doesn’t have the upside to be a star in the NFL, but he’s going to be a very solid slot guy. And if the knee comes around, he could be that relatively quickly. Keep an eye on training camp reports surrounding his health. If he comes back sooner than expected, it’s possible the rookie could be on draft radars. At the very least, Metchie is somebody I’ll be willing to add off waivers a few weeks before his return from injury if I have the roster flexibility.
And yes, I’m including Marlon Mack as a guy I wouldn’t consider drafting. He’s going to have to show me he has something left in the tank post Achilles tear before I give him a shot on any roster.
Jacksonville Jaguars, O/U 6.5 wins
Key returners
Trevor Lawrence, ADP 134 (QB18)
Laviska Shenault, ADP 252 (WR84)
James Robinson, ADP 105 (RB39)
Marvin Jones, ADP 206 (WR70)
Additions
Travis Etienne, ADP 52 (RB23)
Zay Jones ADP 302 (WR103)
Christian Kirk, ADP 114 (WR45
Evan Engram, ADP 192 (TE22)
Departures
D.J. Chark
Carlos Hyde
Urban Meyer
Love
I’m a little nervous diving head-first into the Travis Etienne hype train like the rest of the fantasy community, but it’s hard not to like him more than most other backs in his range, which is currently right in the middle of the running back dead zone.
I was on the record saying I thought Etienne had a long way to go as a runner before last season. It’s plausible that’s still true even after a year where he was forced to sit and learn. But Etienne has undeniable physical gifts, and his explosiveness and pass-catching ability should serve him well as a fantasy asset. Since I’ve never seen him play an NFL game, it’s impossible to say if he’s good enough to overcome a terrible situation and put forth elite production. His upside likely depends on how much the Jags can improve this year.
But none of this is factoring in the health of James Robinson, who is coming back from a torn Achilles. If Robinson misses all or a majority of the season and the Jacksonville offense shows improvement, Etienne has top 12 upside.
Lukewarm
The Jaguars’ receiving room is basically the island of misfit toys. At previous stops, these guys were all supposed to be in the long-term plans of their respective franchises. But none of Evan Engram, Christian Kirk or Zay Jones have been consistently good in the NFL. The good news is there is nowhere to go but up for the Jaguars’ receivers in 2022. Still, the reshaped and overpaid receiving group is better than what was put on the field last year.
Per PFF, the Jaguars posted the NFL’s single-worst catch rate (69%) on catchable targets thrown at least 20 yards downfield.
The biggest question at this point is can Kirk be the team’s number one receiver and live up to his fairly modest draft price? (Although, I would be surprised if his price doesn’t increase as more home leagues start drafting.)
I’m fine with Kirk at his current price. But if people start depth-chart watching (who else is there?!) and Kirk’s price goes up, that’ll make me a little queasy. Kirk is a solid receiver, but please don’t “follow the money” too high in your fantasy drafts.
I have way more issues with Engram as a player than Kirk. He’s pretty much the new Jared Cook. He’s a fantastic athlete who has befuddling drops and will sometimes have huge games. He’s inconsistent like most tight ends. But his lows are enough to put him in the doghouse of his head coach. Still, it will only take one good game for Engram to become a streaming candidate.
It’s pretty damning that this price (WR84) is exactly right for Laviska Shenault. I won’t roster Shenault anywhere this season. Even if he starts playing well, I’m going to err on being late to the party than wasting money on him in waivers after one or two good games.
**Edit to add: There’s probably a strong chance that Marvin Jones remains one of the top receivers on the depth chart in Jacksonville. Jones is a proven veteran who is good for a few blow-up games every season. You just wonder what the expiration date is on the fantasy relevance for Jones at age 32. You could do worse with your last pick of the draft, though.
Trevor Lawrence finished last season as the QB23 and had a disaster rookie season no matter how you look at it. It’s tempting to let Lawrence’s stature as a prospect and hope of an improved situation with better coaching and receivers inflate his rank.
Lawrence led the NFL in interceptions with 17 and his 6.0 yards per attempt ranked near the bottom of the league. There’s nothing you can point to that happened on the field last year to make you feel good about him this year. QB18 is a nice middle ground, and I need to see something on the field from the second-year QB before I have much faith.
Hate
I’m not drafting a running back that tore his Achillies in December 2021. James Robinson is another guy I’m OK with being too late on this season. I think it’s far from a guarantee that Robinson even plays football this season, making his current RB39 price tag a bit baffling.
No Marvin Jones???